Projected Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China and India: The Role of Demographic Change

Tyers, Rodney; Golley, Jane; Bain, Iain

doi:10.1057/9780230250604_8

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The aging of a population causes the decline of total working‐age population of an economy (Bloom et al., 2000; Lee & Skinner, 1999; Wang & Mason, 2005), which leads to changes in the age structure of the labor force and has a negative impact on production (Poot, 2007). China's economic growth would be threatened by population aging via a shortage of labor (Tyers et al., 2009; Wang, 2004). China's aging population has already shown the characteristics of urban–rural inversion, but it remains unknown whether China's current urban–rural differences in aging and relative economic development levels are coordinated.…”

Section: The Key Indicators and The Four‐quadrants Map Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is China’s urban–rural difference in population aging rational? An international comparison with key indicators

et al. 2021

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China's aging population is experiencing an urban–rural inversion phenomenon in that the rural population is aging faster. This is normal worldwide as studies have found that urban–rural differences in population aging have universal and phase characteristics. However, China's population aging presents a “polarization trend,” that is, the aging speed of areas with a deep aging degree is faster. In this paper, we try to test whether China's current urban–rural difference in population aging is rational if considered with China's current economic and social development. We adopted the four‐quadrant map analysis method and compare China with major developed and developing countries with key indicators. Data were mainly collected from databases by country, including the Statistical Yearbook, World Bank Database, and United Nations Database. Results show that urban–rural differences in China's aging population are significantly ahead of economic development and urbanization; this imbalance can explain the greater urban–rural disparity and the “polarization trend” in China's population. Results indicate that population aging's urban–rural differences are not necessarily exhibiting universal and phased characteristics in China. What's worse, the imbalanced population aging situation will make the rural poverty and the inter‐generational conflict more prominently. Public policies are necessary to deal with the current imbalance situation.

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Section: The Key Indicators and The Four‐quadrants Map Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is China’s urban–rural difference in population aging rational? An international comparison with key indicators

et al. 2021

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“…Nevertheless, China does not have a supply of unlimited surplus labor. The growth rate of labor supply is predicted to turn negative by around 2020 (Tyers et al , 2009). China is faced with a turning point where the period of surplus labor has come to an end (Garnaut, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transportation infrastructure and rural development in China

Wang

Sun

2016

CAER

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Purpose The infrastructure investment is one important source of economic growth in China in the past three decades. However it is not clear to what extent such investment affects development in rural area. The purpose of this paper is to explore this impact both conceptually and quantitatively, and draw policy implications from the empirical exercise. Design/methodology/approach The authors first describe the conceptual link between the transportation infrastructure and rural development, which motivates the empirical model. Then by utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag model, the authors estimate both the short- and long-run impacts of the transportation infrastructure on rural development, in terms of cereal yield and per capita net income of rural households. Findings The authors find that investment in transportation infrastructure positively affects rural development in China. In terms of cereal yield, a 1 percent increase in the road infrastructure (road length) leads to around 0.05 percent increase in cereal yield in the short-, and around 0.19 percent increase in the long-run. In terms of the per capita net income of rural households, a 1 percent increase in the road infrastructure results in around 0.14 percent increase in the short-, and its long-run impact is not statistically significant. The positive impacts lend supports to promote investment in the transportation infrastructure. To this end, in addition to the government funding, the participation of private capital can also be promoted through a number of channels, such as the build-operate-transfer, public-private partnership, and establishment of infrastructure investment bank. Originality/value This study evaluates the impacts of transportation infrastructure on rural development in China. Despite of the importance of infrastructure and rural development, there is a lack of study on the interaction between them. This paper intends to fill in this gap. In addition, implications drawn in this exercise can benefit policy makers not only in China, but also in other developing countries.

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“…Many research results showed that the sufficient supply of labour is one of the factors of China's rapid economic growth, and that the contribution of population structure, caused by the increase in the proportion of working-age population and the decline of the population-dependency ratio, to China's economic growth is in the range of 1/6-1/3 [45][46][47]. As the population is ageing, China's economic growth will face the threat of a shortage of labour [48,49].…”

Section: Ageing Population and Socioeconomic Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spatiotemporal Elasticity of Age Structure in China’s Interprovincial Migration System

Lin

Zhao

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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The supply and demand of labour in the market can often experience profound transformations as a result of an ageing population. This can substantially impact the sustainable development of human society. Since the 1970s, China’s internal migration has continued to increase, but there has been a shift toward an ageing trend since the year 2000. How does the change of age structure interact with socioeconomic development to produce changes in the supply and demand of labour over space and time? This study constructs a spatial dynamic panel data model of interprovincial migration flows in China from 1985 to 2015 in order to quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of age structure on migration. The preliminary results indicate that age structure plays the most important role among regional socioeconomic characteristics of migration, dominated by the large supply, demand, and cross elasticities of labour population. Labour demand and the cross elasticities of total dependency ratio rank second. Comparatively, the total elasticities of regional GDP and wage levels on migration flows are not as significant as expected. This study lays the groundwork for identifying the interaction mechanisms of migration systems and provides important insights on regional sustainable development from the perspective of ageing.

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Projected Economic Growth in the People’s Republic of China and India: The Role of Demographic Change

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Is China’s urban–rural difference in population aging rational? An international comparison with key indicators

Is China’s urban–rural difference in population aging rational? An international comparison with key indicators

Transportation infrastructure and rural development in China

The Spatiotemporal Elasticity of Age Structure in China’s Interprovincial Migration System

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