Projected Climate Change Impacts on the Number of Dry and Very Heavy Precipitation Days by Century’s End: A Case Study of Iran’s Metropolises

Abstract

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the number of dry days and very heavy precipitation days within Iran’s metropolises. Focusing on Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Karaj, Shiraz, and Tabriz, the research utilizes the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to predict future precipitation conditions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from 2025 to 2100. The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how climate change will affect precipitation patterns in these major cities. Findings indicate that the SSP126 scenario typically results in the highest number of dry days, suggesting that under lower emission scenarios, precipitation events will become less frequent but more intense. Conversely, SSP585 generally leads to the lowest number of dry days. Higher emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP585) consistently show an increase in the number of very heavy precipitation days across all cities, indicating a trend towards more extreme weather events as emissions rise. These insights are crucial for urban planners, policymakers, and stakeholders in developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address anticipated climatic changes.