Projected climate change impacts on Indiana’s Energy demand and supply

Raymond, Leigh; Gotham, Douglas J.; McClain, William H.; Mukherjee, Sayanti; Nateghi, Roshanak; Preckel, Paul V.; Schubert, Peter J.; Singh, Shweta; Wachs, Elizabeth

doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2299-7

Cited by 13 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…Furthermore, this asymmetry has significant implications for designing adequate power reserve margins to ensure the resilient operation of the grid during extreme temperatures. We emphasis that the projections provided for the period 2081-2099 should not be considered a climate change impact assessment as conducted in prior studies 14,34 . Instead, the projections are provided to demonstrate how the observational evidence of this asymmetry may bear out under future climate conditions.…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetrical response of California electricity demand to summer-time temperature variation

Kumar

Rachunok

Maia-Silva

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Current projections of the climate-sensitive portion of residential electricity demand are based on estimating the temperature response of the mean of the demand distribution. In this work, we show that there is significant asymmetry in the summertime temperature response of electricity demand in the state of California, with high-intensity demand demonstrating a greater sensitivity to temperature increases. The greater climate sensitivity of high-intensity demand is found not only in the observed data, but also in the projections in the near future (2021-2040) and far future periods (2081-2099), and across all (three) utility service regions in California. We illustrate that disregarding the asymmetrical climate sensitivity of demand can lead to underestimating high-intensity demand in a given period by 37-43%. Moreover, the discrepancy in the projected increase in the climate-sensitive portion of demand based on the 50th versus 90th quantile estimates could range from 18 to 40% over the next 20 years. Electricity demand is influenced by many factors, including socio-demographic characteristics 4 , technology 5 , markets 6 , and climate 7-9. Here, we focus on understanding the climate sensitivity of residential electricity demand, which is a critical factor in ensuring the resilient operation of the grid under climate change 1-3. Recent work has isolated the effect of climate variability and change on both peak load (i.e., the highest load in a given time period) and total electricity consumption, indicating climate change will lead to greater electricity use, particularly in the residential sector 2,10-16. This has significant implications as unanticipated increases in cooling demand in the residential sector during heat waves (i.e., periods with sustained positive temperature anomalies) can lead to unexpected supply shortages 17 , distorted electricity market prices 18,19 , as well as increased morbidity and mortality 20 , particularly in vulnerable populations and disadvantaged communities 21. To minimize the economic and social costs of interrupted electricity service, researchers forecast the climatesensitive portion of residential electricity demand during extreme temperatures by harnessing methodologies from various fields, including econometrics 4,22,23 , engineering 23,24 , statistics and machine learning 13,15. However, the existing body of literature has primarily focused on modeling the temperature response of the central tendency (i.e., mean/median) of the demand distribution, as opposed to considering its entire distribution 2,25-27. We hypothesize that projections solely based on the mean/median values of the load distribution underestimate the climate sensitivity of high-intensity demand. Our central hypothesis is that while projections of the climate-demand nexus based on the mean/median values of demand distributions help to characterize the general trends in electricity use over time, they are likely inadequate in characterizing the climate sensitivity of the upper extremes of demand which are...

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetrical response of California electricity demand to summer-time temperature variation

Kumar

Rachunok

Maia-Silva

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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“…However, no consensus has yet been reached on which measures are most predictive of the climate-demand nexus. We isolate the climate sensitivity of residential energy demand (see Methods), which has been established as the most climate-sensitive sector 15,16,[30][31][32][33][34] . Thus, our results primarily reflect changes in demand due to climate variability.…”

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confidence: 99%

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

2020

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Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that rising temperatures are associated with increased humidity; a lethal combination that could significantly increase morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. We bridge this gap by identifying the key measures of heat stress, considering both air temperature and near-surface humidity, in characterizing the climate sensitivity of electricity demand at a national scale. Here we show that in many of the high energy consuming states, such as California and Texas, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10-15% under both present and future climate scenarios. Our results establish that air temperature is a necessary but not sufficient variable for adequately characterizing the climate sensitivity of cooling load, and that near-surface humidity plays an equally important role.

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“…From 2021 to 2080, this carbon tax reduces projected carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 10 percent per year. Raymond et al, 2019. The renewable investment credits achieve similar results, with wind power increasing more slowly at the beginning, but faster over time. From 2021 to 2080, a renewable tax credit would cut carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 6 percent per year, with larger annual reductions than the carbon tax starting in 2065.…”

Section: Policy-driven Impactsmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…If natural gas prices were (IN-MARKAL), under a high climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Source: Raymond et al, 2019. twice as high as in the base model, by contrast, renewables would rise to over 80 percent of production by 2080 with gas reduced to under 20 percent in the same scenario.…”

Section: Price Sensitivity Of Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Climate Change and Indiana’s Energy Sector: A Report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

Raymond¹,

Gotham²,

McClain³

et al. 2019

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Projected climate change impacts on Indiana’s Energy demand and supply

Cited by 13 publications

References 16 publications

Asymmetrical response of California electricity demand to summer-time temperature variation

Asymmetrical response of California electricity demand to summer-time temperature variation

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

Climate Change and Indiana’s Energy Sector: A Report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

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