Projected changes of the low‐latitude north‐western Pacific wind‐driven circulation under global warming

Duan, Jing; Chen, Zhaohui; Wu, Lixin

doi:10.1002/2017gl073355

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…We have further shown that this gradient is intimately tied to the wind-driven NEC. Accordingly, if our hypothesis is correct, projected future changes in the distribution of wind stress, which controls NEC current flow and Ekman transports (Duan et al 2017), could have a major impact on fish distribution even if changes are not registered in mean nutrient and Chl a fields.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Nutrient co‐limitation in the subtropical Northwest Pacific

Browning

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2021

Limnol Oceanogr Letters

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Constraining which nutrients limit phytoplankton growth is important for understanding ocean productivity, its response to climate change, and providing a benchmark on the accuracy of ocean biogeochemical models. The extensive subtropical Northwest Pacific is assumed to be nitrogen limited, but this is based mostly on indirect evidence. We conducted experiments along an~8000 km cruise track showing a geographic switch from sites that were nitrogen limited and those that were nitrogen-iron co-limited. Co-limited sites showed much larger responses to nutrient supply, due to blooming of diatoms that were initially undetectable. Because diatom growth leads to higher biomass accumulation and more efficient energy transfer up food chains, we hypothesize that this gradient could be important for regulating matching gradients in predatory tuna.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Nutrient co‐limitation in the subtropical Northwest Pacific

Browning

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2021

Limnol Oceanogr Letters

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“…It is necessary to test the trend's sensitivity to the choices of wind products and ocean models. Moreover, existing studies have suggested that the mean transport of the MC might decrease due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (Duan et al, ; Hu et al, ; Sen Gupta et al, ). It is interesting to project the future change of the MC in the 21st century under the warming climate.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal Variations of the Mindanao Current During 1960–2010

Duan

Wang

et al. 2019

JGR Oceans

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Results from an eddy‐resolving ocean model simulation, an ocean reanalysis data, and reduced‐gravity ocean (RGO) model simulations reach consensus in suggesting prominent decadal fluctuations of the Mindanao Current (MC) during 1960–2010. The MC was evidently enhanced during 1974–1982 and 2002–2008 and weakened during 1983–1990 and 1994–2001, with typical amplitude of ~2.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3/s) for decadal volume transport anomaly. These variations are closely associated with the strength of the westward flowing North Equatorial Current at 130°E and not evidently related with its bifurcation latitude. Experiments using a 1.5‐layer RGO model are performed to understand the mechanisms. Decadal variations of the MC are primarily caused by off‐equatorial wind changes in the tropical North Pacific, and winds in the latitude range of the MC (3–13°N) play the dominant role. Equatorial winds between 3°S and 3°N generally act to attenuate the MC variability, and subtropical winds have little contribution. For zonal distribution, local wind forcing between 120 and 160°E explains 67.8% of the MC decadal variability, while those in the central and eastern Pacific have weaker effects (25.0% and 7.2%, respectively). RGO model runs forced by nine wind data sets confirm the tight relationship between the MC and the western Pacific winds since the 1980s. The anomalous westerly winds under El Niño‐like condition drive upwelling in the Philippine Sea through off‐equatorial Ekman pumping that strengthens the MC. The relationship prior to 1980 is sensitive to the choice of wind data set, with four data sets yielding low or negative correlations.

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“…Under weakened trade winds, the NBL shifts northward to partly offset the MC weakening, and the KC transport is also reduced (e.g., Duan et al, 2017). The MC is weakened by -2.2 Sv at +100% wind trend, and under +300% wind trend, the MC change is -6.6 Sv.…”

Section: Discussion: Sensitivity To Wind Forcing Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The responses of the NEC, NBL, and KC to the projected wind trends are also linear. Under weakened trade winds, the NBL shifts northward to partly offset the MC weakening, and the KC transport is also reduced (e.g., Duan et al, ). Therefore, zonally uniform, weak trends of the Pacific trade winds as in CMIP5 model projection generally induce linear response of the Philippine Sea circulation, and the MC's trend tends to be weak.…”

Section: Discussion: Sensitivity To Wind Forcing Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal Change of the Mindanao Current: Is There a Robust Trend?

Duan

Wang

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Ten ocean state estimate products are analyzed to quantify the multidecadal change of the Mindanao Current (MC). These data sets suggest multidecadal trends of the MC transport since 1961, 1980, and 1993 are weak (‐0.3 Sv, +0.7 Sv, and +2.1 Sv, respectively; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3/s) and not robust with respect to the large spread of different data sets. The primary cause is the discrepancies in different wind data sets, and change of the North Equatorial Current's bifurcation latitude also acts to attenuate the MC change. The bifurcation latitude shifts southward (northward) under enhanced (weakened) northeasterly trade winds and feeds less (more) water to the MC. Experimental simulations of a reduced‐gravity model forced by reanalysis and model‐projected wind trends suggest an asymmetry of the MC's response to wind forcing. Anomalous westerly winds in the western Pacific can dramatically enhance the MC through spinning up the cyclonic local recirculation.

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Projected changes of the low‐latitude north‐western Pacific wind‐driven circulation under global warming

Cited by 15 publications

References 50 publications

Nutrient co‐limitation in the subtropical Northwest Pacific

Nutrient co‐limitation in the subtropical Northwest Pacific

Decadal Variations of the Mindanao Current During 1960–2010

Multidecadal Change of the Mindanao Current: Is There a Robust Trend?

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