Projected Changes in Wave Conditions in the Baltic Sea by the end of 21st Century and the Corresponding Shoreline Changes

Suursaar, Ülo; Tõnisson, Hannes; Alari, Victor; Raudsepp, Urmas; Rästas, Henri; Anderson, Agnes

doi:10.2112/si75-203.1

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…For extreme values, these studies give even less reliable results. The results of Groll et al (2017), Suursaar et al (2016), and Bonaduce et al (2019) all indicated large spatial variability in how the projected extremes changed. In addition to the wind speed, extreme values are quite sensitive to wind direction, since fetch varies with direction due to the geometry of the Baltic Sea.…”

Section: 35(5) Wavesmentioning

confidence: 93%

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

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Section: 35(5) Wavesmentioning

confidence: 93%

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

et al. 2022

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“…These factors can cause sediment trapping and accumulation of polluting substances, thus damaging environmental health. Therefore, coastal management plans and in situ decision-making should include actions to guarantee thorough knowledge of hydrodynamic processes [ 5 , 6 , 7 ]. Generally, numerical models are preferred in this scope, because they allow us to reproduce and predict marine physical phenomena in a relatively short time, with accuracy and moderate costs [ 8 , 9 , 10 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteo and Hydrodynamic Measurements to Detect Physical Processes in Confined Shallow Seas

Serio

Mossa

2018

Sensors

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Coastal sites with typical lagoon features are extremely vulnerable, often suffering from scarce circulation. Especially in the case of shallow basins subjected to strong anthropization and urban discharges, it is fundamental to monitor their hydrodynamics and water quality. The proper detection of events by high performance sensors and appropriate analysis of sensor signals has proved to be a necessary tool for local authorities and stakeholders, leading to early warning and preventive measures against environmental degradation and related hazards. At the same time, assessed datasets are not only essential to deepen the knowledge of the physical processes in the target basin, but are also necessary to calibrate and validate modelling systems providing forecasts. The present paper aims to show how long-term and continuous recordings of meteorological and hydrodynamic data, collected in a semi-enclosed sea, can be managed to rapidly provide fundamental insights on its hydrodynamic structure. The acquired signals have been analyzed in time domain, processed and finally, correlated. The adopted method is simple, feasible and easily replicable. Even if the results are site-dependent, the procedure is generic, and depends on having good quality available data. To show how this might be employed, a case study is examined. In fact, it has been applied to a coastal system, located in Southern Italy, where two monitoring stations are placed in two interconnected basins. The inferred results show that the system is not wind dominated, and that the annual trends in the wind regime, wave spreading and current circulation are not independent, but rather reiterate. These deductions are of great interest as a predictive perspective and for numerical modelling.

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“…Various studies have been performed so far with the motivation of better comprehending future wave climate changes in LST and shoreline evolution. While some of these were LST studies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7], some of them were carried out to predict shoreline changes [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] is order to address the fact that long-term wave climate variations, influenced by regional climate change, present a complex issue affecting LST and coastline change. These studies suggest that climate change affects the LST mechanism through variations in wave characteristics and climate variability, with potential impacts on shoreline position and orientation, and can aggravate coastal erosion in some regions while having a broadly neutral effect in others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Wave Climate-Driven Longshore Sediment Transport and Shoreline Evolution along the Southwestern Black Sea

Başaran,

Arı Güner

2024

Water

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This study investigates the future wave climate-driven longshore sediment transport (LST) and shoreline change on the Karasu Coast, situated on the southwestern coast of the Black Sea, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 wave climate scenarios. Within the scope of this study, hourly deep sea wave data between 2021 and 2100, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used in order to predict future LST processes. Net and gross LST rates were computed using various empirical and numerical methods based on hourly wave parameters. By the conclusion of the study period after 80 years, the average net LST rates were obtained as 48,000 and 51,500 m3/year in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the gross LST rates were 250,000 and 255,000 m3/year. Due to the increase in wave height and period in both climate scenarios compared to the historical data, the average gross LST rates are projected to rise in the future. The reduction in swell wave heights, coupled with an increase in wind wave heights, compared to the past has led to a reduction in net LST. The results show that, after 80 years, LST will have increased 2.5 times more in the near future in comparison with the middle future for both scenarios.

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Projected Changes in Wave Conditions in the Baltic Sea by the end of 21st Century and the Corresponding Shoreline Changes

Cited by 8 publications

References 0 publications

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

Meteo and Hydrodynamic Measurements to Detect Physical Processes in Confined Shallow Seas

Future Wave Climate-Driven Longshore Sediment Transport and Shoreline Evolution along the Southwestern Black Sea

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