Projected changes in the Iberian Peninsula drought characteristics

Ojeda, Matilde García‐Valdecasas; Gámiz‐Fortis, Sonia Raquel; Jiménez, E.; Rosa-Cánovas, Juan José; Yeste, Patricio; Castro‐Díez, Yolanda; Esteban‐Parra, María Jesús

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143702

Cited by 29 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…In this regard, the present research also indicates an increase in the irregularity of rainfall; however, it does not evidence a clearly downward trend in precipitation in recent decades. In addition, our results reveal an increase in the frequency, duration and magnitude of drought events in the second half of the analyzed period, which coincides with findings from previous studies [32,35]. This trend, together with the detected shift of winter rainfall towards warmer months, when evapotranspiration reached very high levels, might accentuate water stress in the study area and have manifold consequences on the Barbate River basin.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In the particular case of the Iberian Peninsula, drought patterns are determined by their intermediate location between temperate and subtropical climates and are characterized by their complexity and marked spatial gradients throughout the territory [29]. The number of studies on drought characterization and monitoring using indices is quite large in the context of the whole country [30][31][32][33][34][35]. However, the limited spatial density of measurements in large-scale studies, together with the remarkable climatic and topographic heterogeneity of certain regions such as Andalusia (Southern Spain), may yield unrepresentative results on smaller scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation Variability and Drought Assessment Using the SPI: Application to Long-Term Series in the Strait of Gibraltar Area

Vélez-Nicolás

García-López

Ruiz-Ortiz

et al. 2022

Water

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The standardized precipitation index (SPI) provides reliable estimations about the intensity, magnitude and spatial extent of droughts in a variety of time scales based on long-term precipitation series. In this work, we assess the evolution of monthly precipitation in the Barbate River basin (S. Iberian Peninsula) between 1910/11 and 2017/18 through the generation of a representative precipitation series for the 108-year period and the subsequent application of the SPI. This extensive series was obtained after processing all the precipitation data (67 stations) available within and nearby the basin and subsequent complex gap-filling stages. The SPI identified 26 periods of drought, 12 of them severe and 6 extreme, with return periods of 9 and 18 years, respectively. Complementary analysis evidenced changes in precipitation cyclicity, with periodicities of 5 and 7–8 years during the first and second half of the study period, respectively. Additionally, the amplitude of pluviometric oscillations increased during the second half of the period, and extreme events were more frequent. While the decade 1940–1950 was very dry, with precipitation 11% below the basin’s average, 1960–1970 was very humid, with precipitation 23% above average. Contrary to the results of climate change projections specific to this area, a clear downward trend in precipitation is not detected.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Variability and Drought Assessment Using the SPI: Application to Long-Term Series in the Strait of Gibraltar Area

Vélez-Nicolás

García-López

Ruiz-Ortiz

et al. 2022

Water

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“…Projected changes in droughts were analyzed in terms of duration, frequency, severity, and spatial extent affected by drought. Following other studies [47][48][49] , duration is defined as the consecutive number of months of a drought event; frequency is the number of drought events during the 30 years study period (1980-2009 or 2070-2099); severity indicates the magnitude of each event and is computed as the minimum index reached during it. The spatial extent of drought is measured as the percentage of land gridpoints in which the drought index falls below the threshold -1.…”

Section: Drought and Aridity Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The uneven impact of climate change on drought with elevation in the Canary Islands

et al. 2023

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Climate models project an increase in drought and aridity in many regions in response to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. In areas with complex topography, such as the Canary Islands, elevation gradients may play an important role in future changes. Convection-permitting climate simulations driven by data from three global climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been performed for the Canary Islands. A significant increase in the duration and severity of drought is projected by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099), relative to the recent past (1980–2009), under intermediate and high emissions scenarios. In addition, the percentage of land affected by droughts, on average, would increase considerably, covering up to 96% in the higher elevations, in the business-as-usual scenario. These changes and the increase in aridity are more pronounced at higher altitudes due to a clear dependence of temperature rise as a function of elevation and a substantial decrease in precipitation.

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“…Under the null hypothesis H 0 , the distribution of S is symmetrical and is normal in the limit as n becomes large, with zero mean and variance: (13) in which t i indicates the number of ties with extend i.…”

Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, climate change has worsened the extremes of high temperature and both low and high precipitation, and thus has increased the risk of drought [13,14]. For example, Vilaj et al [15] reported that the SPI reveals an increasing occurrence of droughts in Kerala, India, caused by a decreasing trend of extreme precipitation indexes and an increasing trend of extreme temperature indexes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in the Wadi Cheliff Basin, Algeria

et al. 2021

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The Mediterranean Basin, located in a transition zone between the temperate and rainy climate of central Europe and the arid climate of North Africa, is considered a major hotspot of climate change, subject to water scarcity and drought. In this work, dry and wet spells have been analyzed in the Wadi Cheliff basin (Algeria) by means of annual precipitation observed at 150 rain gauges in the period 1970–2018. In particular, the characteristics of dry and wet spells (frequency, duration, severity, and intensity) have been evaluated by means of the run theory applied to the 12-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) values. Moreover, in order to detect possible tendencies in the SPI values, a trend analysis has been performed by means of two non-parametric tests, the Theil–Sen and Mann–Kendall test. The results indicated similar values of frequency, severity, duration, and intensity between the dry and the wet spells, although wet events showed higher values in the extreme. Moreover, the results of the trend analysis evidenced a different behavior between the northern side of the basin, characterized by a negative trend in the 12-month SPI values, and the southern side, in which positive trends were detected.

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Projected changes in the Iberian Peninsula drought characteristics

Cited by 29 publications

References 58 publications

Precipitation Variability and Drought Assessment Using the SPI: Application to Long-Term Series in the Strait of Gibraltar Area

Precipitation Variability and Drought Assessment Using the SPI: Application to Long-Term Series in the Strait of Gibraltar Area

The uneven impact of climate change on drought with elevation in the Canary Islands

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Dry and Wet Spells in the Wadi Cheliff Basin, Algeria

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