Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

Ullah, Irfan; Saleem, Farhan; Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Yin, Jun; Ma, Xieyao; Syed, Sidra; Hina, Saadia; Asfaw, Temesgen Gebremariam; Omer, Abubaker

doi:10.1029/2021ef002240

Cited by 72 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…Interestingly, the present study also witnessed increasing trends of warm temperature events in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the regions, which agreed with the findings of previous studies in the same regions [51,52]. The upsurge of frequency, intensity, and extent of daily warm extreme temperature and decline of extreme cold temperature may occur in parts of the world, resulting in the escalation of length and intensity of warm period or a heatwave in most land areas [3,5,53,54].…”

Section: Observed Annual and Seasonal Trends Of Precipitation And Tem...supporting

confidence: 92%

“…The time series revealed abrupt drying patterns with intensified droughts from 2000 to 2020 in R-1 and R-2, whereas R-3 observed a relatively less drying trend, and R-4 even showed a wetting trend over the 40-year period. Similar findings were reported in previous studies over the regions [3,5]. The previous works attributed the regional drying to the warming climate and/or fewer changes in precipitation.…”

Section: Observed Drought Trends Over Space and Timesupporting

confidence: 91%

“…These droughts have dramatic impacts on health, transport, agriculture, energy, and ecosystem vitality [4]. South Asia (SA) is home to one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia, and human-associated land-use changes and policies are leaving indelible marks on the land surface [5,6]. In the recent past, SA has faced severe droughts due to changing climate, that have affected water resources, energy generation, and agricultural production, and have disturbed the lives of more than 1.6 billion people [7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Ullah

Ren

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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South Asia is home to one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia, and human activities are leaving indelible marks on the land surface. Yet the likelihood of successive observed droughts in South Asia (SA) and its four subregions (R-1: semi-arid, R-2: arid, R-3: subtropical wet, and R-4: tropical wet and dry) remains poorly understood. Using the state-of-the-art self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), we examined the impact of different natural ocean variability modes on the evolution, severity, and magnitude of observed droughts across the four subregions that have distinct precipitation seasonality and cover key breadbaskets and highly vulnerable populations. The study revealed that dryness had significantly increased in R-1, R-2, and R-4 during 1981–2020. Temporal analysis revealed an increase in drought intensity for R-1 and R-4 since the 2000s, while a mixed behavior was observed in R-2 and R-3. Moreover, most of the sub-regions witnessed a substantial upsurge in annual precipitation, but a significant decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) during 1981–2020. The increase in precipitation and the decline in VPD partially contributed to a significant rise in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a decrease in dryness. In contrast, a strong positive correlation was found between drought index and precipitation, and NDVI across R-1, R-2, and R-4, whereas temperature and VPD exhibited a negative correlation over these regions. No obvious link was detected with El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and drought evolution, as explored for certain regions of SA. The findings showed the possibility that the precipitation changes over these regions had an insignificant relationship with ENSO, IOD, and drought onset. Thus, the study results highlight the need for considering interactions within the longer climate system in describing observed drought risks rather than aiming at drivers from an individual perspective.

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Section: Observed Annual and Seasonal Trends Of Precipitation And Tem...supporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Observed Drought Trends Over Space and Timesupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Ullah

Ren

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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“…Shahzaman et al [ 87 ] concluded in their study that drought has been observed over central and northern Pakistan during 1982–2019 by integrating various data types. Proportion of South Asian population exposer to heatwaves is increasing under the shared socioeconomic scenarios in the twenty first century, however, the northern areas of Pakistan are unaffected presently [ 88 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and spatio-temporal trend analysis of climate extremes in the homogeneous climatic zones of Pakistan during 1962-2019

Khan

Ali²,

Mayer

et al. 2022

PLoS ONE

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Climate extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall can lead to harvest failures, flooding and consequently threaten the food security worldwide. Improving our understanding about climate extremes can mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and extremes. The objective here is to investigate the changes in climate and climate extremes by considering two time slices (i.e., 1962–1990 and 1991–2019) in all climate zones of Pakistan by utilizing observed data from 54 meteorological stations. Different statistical methods and techniques were applied on observed station data to assess changes in temperature, precipitation and spatio-temporal trends of climatic extremes over Pakistan from 1962 to 2019. The Mann-Kendal test demonstrated increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperatures (JJA) at the meteorological stations located in the Karakoram region during 1962–1990. The decadal analysis, on the other hand, showed a decrease in precipitation during 1991–2019 and an increase in temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010–2019, which is consistent with the recently observed slight mass loss of glaciers related to the Karakoram Anomaly. These changes are highly significant at 5% level of significance at most of the stations. In case of temperature extremes, summer days (SU25) increased except in zone 4, TX10p (cold days) decreased across the country during 1962–1990, except for zones 1 and 2. TX90p (warm days) increased between 1991–2019, with the exception of zone 5, and decreased during 1962–1990, with the exception of zones 2 and 5. The spatio-temporal trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a rising tendency from 1991 to 2019, with the exception of zone 4, which showed a decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days), and R25mm (very heavy precipitation days) increased (decreased) considerably in the North Pakistan during 1962–1990 (1991–2019). The findings of this study can help to address some of the sustainable development goals related climate action, hunger and environment. In addition, the findings can help in developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies against climate change and extremes. As the climate and extremes conditions are not the uniform in all climate zone, therefore, it is suggested to the formers and agriculture department to harvest crops resilient to the climatic condition of each zone. Temperature has increasing trend in the northern Pakistan, therefore, the concerned stakeholders need to make rational plans for higher river flow/flood situation due to snow and glacier melt.

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“…The reason is that the growth environment and growth of grasslands are determined by precipitation and air temperature, and the changes in precipitation and air temperature play a vital role in the change in plant productivity of grasslands all over the world [8]. However, with the increase in population, the influence of human activities such as overgrazing, on grassland becomes more and more obvious [9][10][11][12]. So far, there have been a lot of studies on grassland NPP as an indicator to measure the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in Alpine Grassland NPP in Response to Climate Variation and Human Activities in the Yellow River Source Zone from 2000 to 2020

Zhang

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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Identifying the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to alpine grassland dynamics is critical for understanding grassland degradation mechanisms. In this study, first, the actual NPP (NPPa) was obtained by MOD17A3. Second, we used the Zhou Guangsheng model to simulate the potential met net primary productivity (NPPp). Finally, the NPP generated by anthropogenic activities (NPPh) was estimated by calculating the difference between NPPp and NPPa. Then, the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes in grasslands were quantitatively assessed by analyzing trends in NPPp and NPPa. Thereby, the drivers of NPP change in the Yellow River source grassland were identified. The results showed that the temperature and precipitation in the study area showed a warm-humid climate trend from 2000 to 2020. The NPPp and NPPa increased at a rate of 1.07 g C/m2 and 1.51 g C/m2 per year, respectively, while the NPPh decreased at a rate of 0.46 g C/m2 per year. It can be seen that human activities had a positive effect on the change of NPP in the Yellow River source grassland from the change rate. The relative contribution analysis showed that 55.90% of grassland NPP increased due to climate change, 40.16% of grassland NPP increased due to human activities, and the grassland degradation was not significant. The research results can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for the next step of the Yellow River source grassland ecological protection project.

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Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

Cited by 72 publications

References 90 publications

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Climate change and spatio-temporal trend analysis of climate extremes in the homogeneous climatic zones of Pakistan during 1962-2019

Change in Alpine Grassland NPP in Response to Climate Variation and Human Activities in the Yellow River Source Zone from 2000 to 2020

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