Projected changes in population exposure to extreme heat in China under a RCP8.5 scenario

Abstract

Overall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat. Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature (HT) and extremely high temperature (EHT) in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃ and 40℃, respectively. Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future (i.e.

Significant Increase of the Global Population Exposure to Increased Precipitation Extremes in the Future

“…For example, driven by high population growth and changing climatic conditions, the aggregate population exposure to heat events in African cities is expected to be 20 to 52 times higher at the end of this century than it is currently (Rohat et al, 2019). Similar cases have been reported over other regions across the world, such as in the United States, South Asia, and North Asia, where future exposure to heat conditions is projected to significantly increase (Coffel et al, 2018;Huang et al, 2018;Jones et al, 2015;Liu et al, 2017). Additionally, the average worldwide population exposed to extreme drought is projected to increase approximately fourfold by the end of this century under the RCP8.5 scenario (Smirnov et al, 2016).…”

Future Risks of Unprecedented Compound Heat Waves Over Three Vast Urban Agglomerations in China

“…Given the perceived seriousness of the impact of record-breaking heat waves on human society and natural ecosystems, it is especially important to project the future probability of occurrence of historically unprecedented heat waves. In China, increasing efforts have been devoted to the projections of future changes in different aspects of heat waves, for example, frequency, duration, and intensity (Guo et al, 2017;Sun et al, 2018;Wang et al, 2015Wang et al, , 2019, as well as to the associated population exposure (Huang et al, 2018;Li et al, 2019). However, few studies have focused on the future occurrences of severe heat waves with magnitude greater than historical record-breaking heat events witnessed by densely populated urban areas, primarily because of the lack of appropriate high-resolution observations and climate model projections.…”

Understanding Weather and Climate Extremes

“…With this detail, by warning individuals living in highrisk areas and providing disaster relief, we can plan for severe weather events. In combating climate related impact and environmental extremes, the influence of climate change can also be observed by simulating the effects of various greenhouse gas concentrations on the environmental components Consequently, it has been found that climate change has increased the risk of wildfires in some regions of the world (Luo et al, 2013), extreme heat in China (Huang et al, 2018), and drought in South Africa (Orimoloye et al, 2020b;Orimoloye et al, 2021). Continuous study and development in the attribution of extreme events will help us find out more specifically how extreme environmental events are influenced by climate change and how we could change this trajectory.…”