Projected changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Lake Urmia basin in Iran

Abstract

This study investigates the future changes in precipitation extreme indices in the Lake Urmia Basin during the period 2021–2100 compared to the base period (1987–2016), based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Trend analysis was performed using Mann–Kendall test and Sen's estimator. The output of these models was downscaled by the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator method for the representative concentration pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A model averaging technique was employed to create an ensemble model. The results showed that the average precipitation of the basin will decrease by the end of the 21st century. The projection also showed that the consecutive dry day's index increases based on both scenarios. However, other indices (maximum 1-day precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, very wet days, consecutive wet days, simple daily intensity index, and wet-day precipitation) are reduced compared to the base period. Moreover, the slope of significant trends in the RCP8.5 is greater and more severe than that in RCP4.5.

Analysis of Changes in agro-climatic indices in Northwest and West of Iran

“…Basically, agricultural products and natural vegetation of each region are among the most vulnerable systems against climate change in that region (Piticar, 2019 andJavan et al 2023). Based on this, agriculture is one of the most dependent human activities on weather (Hansen 2002).…”