Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil

Ferreira, Nicole Costa Resende; Miranda, Jarbas Honório de

doi:10.1007/s10668-020-00715-z

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…This process is positively affected by raises in air temperature; thus, these changes may alter future water conditions and the yield of crops. Ferreira and Miranda (2021) and Santos et al (2020) observed increases in evapotranspiration in the Paraná State, with the largest increases also occurring for the worst-case scenarios of the IPCC.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Thus, the impact of climate change on the water cycle also has a direct effect on the agricultural development and productivity. Considering the scenarios of the fifth IPCC report, recent studies have evaluated projections for water balance components and their impacts in terms of agricultural productivity in southern Brazil (Ferreira & Miranda, 2021;Santos et al, 2020;Pinheiro, Graciano, & Kaufmann, 2013;Resende, Miranda, Cooke, Chu, & Chou, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

et al. 2021

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Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

et al. 2021

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Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios

et al. 2023

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This work aimed to evaluate changes in water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water availability) and precipitation extremes projected under global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, in Brazil. An ensemble of eight twenty-first-century projections with the Eta Regional Climate Model and their driving Global Climate Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and BESM) were used. Projections of two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, considered intermediate and high concentration, respectively, were used. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario under 2 °C GWL is likely to have a higher impact on the water balance components, amplifying trends in drier conditions and increasing the number of consecutive dry days in some regions of Brazil, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. On the other hand, the projections indicate the opposite sign for the South region, with trends toward wetter conditions and significant increases in extreme rainfall. The 0.5 °C difference between the GWLs contributes to intensifying reductions (increases) from 4 to 7% in water availability, mainly in the North-Northeast (South) regions. The projected changes could have serious consequences, such as increases in the number of drought events in hydrographic regions of the Northeast region of Brazil and increases in flood events in the South of the country. The results here presented can contribute to the formulation of adaptive planning strategies aimed at ensuring Brazil’s water security towards climate change. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1.

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Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Corn and Soybean Double-Cropping System in Brazil

Bigolin,

Talamini

2024

Climate

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Brazil is one of the main producing and exporting countries of corn and soybean and a continental country with climatic diversity that allows the cultivation of these crops in various agricultural systems. Double cropping is a widely adopted system throughout the national territory, where it is possible to cultivate soybeans at the beginning of the growing season, followed by corn in succession, in the same growing season. The present study aims to systematize the scientific knowledge about the impacts of future climate change scenarios on yield and on the double-cropping system of soybean + corn in Brazil. Systematic review procedures were adopted. The soybean yield is projected to increase in all regions of Brazil under all climate scenarios. Corn yields under future climate scenarios are projected to decline, with the subtropical climate region being less affected than the northern regions. The double-cropping systems of soybean + corn tend to present increasing climate risks in tropical climate regions. Climate change scenarios point to a delay in the start of the rainy season that will delay the sowing of soybeans, consequently delaying the sowing of corn in succession, resulting in fewer rainy days to complete its cycle.

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Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil

Cited by 3 publications

References 48 publications

Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

Water balance components and climate extremes over Brazil under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of global warming scenarios

Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Corn and Soybean Double-Cropping System in Brazil

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