Projected change in the rainfall behaviour over Odisha

Abstract

Climate change has impacted the rainfall characteristics and the extremes are on the rise across the world. These changes threaten agriculture, water resources, and disaster management. Odisha, an eastern Indian state with an agrarian economy, heavily relies on monsoon rainfall. The study analyses the projected change in the rainfall characteristics across Odisha at different specific warming targets of the Paris Climate Agreement using high-resolution regional climate models. The study adopts a bi-fold approach; first, it employs a robust method to select the best model experiments; afterwards, the model ensemble is used to examine the projected rainfall characteristics. The results indicate a 4–16% increase in projected rainfall over Odisha, with an extended rainy season. The projected number of consecutive wet days, moderate and extreme rainfall, is expected to rise under the global warming scenario. The prolonged rainy season with heavy rainfall can result in disasters like post-monsoon floods, while higher rainfall variability will increase the risk of floods and droughts across Odisha, threatening agriculture. The results will help pinpoint regions most vulnerable to climate change. The study also suggested measures to assist governments and planners in developing short-term and long-term strategies for adaptation and mitigation to lessen climate change impacts.