Projected Atlantic overturning slow-down is to be compensated by a strengthened South Atlantic subtropical gyre

Marcello, Fernanda; Tonelli, M.; Wainer, Ilana

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00750-4

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 173 publications

(217 reference statements)

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“…The AMOC is projected to weaken according to the IPCC projections for the 21st century (Collins et al, 2019;Fox-Kemper et al, 2021;Lee et al, 2021). Predictions of future AMOC weakening have been linked to a BC intensification (Marcello et al, 2023), and our results corroborate the link between the BC and the AMOC at 22.5°S, thus the continuation of this monitoring effort at 22.5°S might provide early evidence of changes in the AMOC in the Northern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

An ARGO and XBT Observing System for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Meridional Heat Transport (AXMOC) at 22.5°S

Pita,

Goes,

Volkov

et al. 2023

JGR Oceans

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Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated Meridional Heat Transport (MHT) can affect climate and weather patterns, regional sea levels, and ecosystems. Direct observations of the AMOC are still limited, particularly in the South Atlantic. This study establishes a cost‐effective trans‐basin section to estimate for the first time the AMOC and MHT at 22.5°S, using only sustained ocean observations. For this, an optimal mapping method that minimizes the difference between surface in situ dynamic height and satellite altimetry was developed to retrieve monthly temperature and salinity profiles from Argo and XBT data along the 22.5°S section. The mean states, as well as the interannual and seasonal changes of the obtained AMOC and MHT were compared with other products. The mean AMOC and MHT for 22.5°S are 16.3 ± 3.2 Sv and 0.7 ± 0.2 PW, respectively, showing stronger transports during austral fall/winter and weaker in spring. The high‐density XBT data available at the western boundary were vital for capturing the highly variable Brazil Current (BC), whose mean and variability was improved compared to other products. At 22.5°S, the North Atlantic Deep Water is divided into two cores that flow along both the western and the eastern boundaries near 2,500 m depth. Our results (a) suggest a greater influence of the western boundary current system on the AMOC variability at 22.5°S, (b) highlight the importance of high‐density in situ data for AMOC estimates, and (c) contribute to a better understanding of the AMOC and MHT variability in the South Atlantic.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

An ARGO and XBT Observing System for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Meridional Heat Transport (AXMOC) at 22.5°S

Pita,

Goes,

Volkov

et al. 2023

JGR Oceans

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Orchestrated decline of Asian summer monsoon and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in global warming period

Zhao¹,

Cheng²,

Cao³

et al. 2023

TIG

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The anthropogenic warming of the Earth��s atmosphere is causing dynamical and thermodynamical changes in the ocean and atmosphere circulation, including the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and the oxygen isotope compositions of its precipitation. Here we present a high-resolution speleothem ��18O record from the Shandong Peninsula, eastern China with an age precision of �� 3 years, which in conjunction with five other existing high-resolution speleothem records from the ASM domain, reveals a robust weakening trend in the ASM during the global warming period, particularly since around the 1970s. During this period, both the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation inferred from existing model-empirical records and the spatially heterogeneous pattern of global warming inferred from the coupled reanalysis of the 20th century (CERA-20C) product result in broadly similar changes in moisture flux pattern in the ASM domain. This, in turn, leads to the ASM weakening trend in terms of dynamics, as suggested by the speleothem ��18O records.

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Projected Atlantic overturning slow-down is to be compensated by a strengthened South Atlantic subtropical gyre

Cited by 2 publications

References 173 publications

An ARGO and XBT Observing System for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Meridional Heat Transport (AXMOC) at 22.5°S

An ARGO and XBT Observing System for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Meridional Heat Transport (AXMOC) at 22.5°S

Orchestrated decline of Asian summer monsoon and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in global warming period

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