Progress toward developing a practical societal response to severe convection (2005 EGU Sergei Soloviev Medal Lecture)

Doswell, Charles A.

doi:10.5194/nhess-5-691-2005

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 37 publications

(37 reference statements)

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“…Half of the respondents (9) identified the need for local research and knowledge for nowcasting. As tornadoes are relatively rare events, the lack of experience that an individual forecaster has on tornado nowcasting was viewed also as limiting factor by three countries, as also noted by Doswell (2005). Surprisingly, only three countries (18%) pointed out the lack of enough spotter reports, as a challenge in issuing tornado warnings.…”

Section: The Challenges the Nhmss Pointed Outmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Because of the large threat from severe weather faced by much of the USA, the forecasting, warning, and dissemination system in the USA is one of the most advanced in the world. As discussed by Doswell (2003Doswell ( , 2005, this system was developed mostly ad hoc rather than through a rigorous planning, implementation, and evaluation process. As such, pieces of the system exist that might have arisen differently had such a rigorous process been in place.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in Europe

Rauhala

Schultz

2009

Atmospheric Research

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This study summarizes the current severe thunderstorm warning and forecast operations in different European National Hydro-Meteorological Services (NHMSs), and, in doing so, suggests ways for countries developing their own warning service to learn from experiences in other countries, as well as from the warning operations in the United States of America, the longest-lived severe thunderstorm warning operations in the world. This study is based on a questionnaire sent to 39 European NHMSs of which thirty-three (85%) responded. Currently, many European NHMSs are actively developing their severe thunderstorm forecast process and warning services with 26 (79%) of respondent countries issuing severe thunderstorm warnings and 8 (24%) issuing tornado warnings. Both warning criteria and methodologies used in the warning process vary from country to country. Lead-times range from 30 min to 96 h, indicating a range of different warning philosophies for each country. Major challenges toward improving the warning operations include obtaining observations of severe weather for real-time forecasting and post-event verification, educating forecasters, and having access to state-ofthe-art forecaster workstations. An additional challenge is in communicating anticipated or ongoing severe thunderstorms, both internationally between NHMSs and nationally with media and emergency authorities.

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Section: The Challenges the Nhmss Pointed Outmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in Europe

Rauhala

Schultz

2009

Atmospheric Research

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“…1a), particularly the Barcelona province, recurrently affected by convective heavy rainfall and subsequent flash-flood events (Barrera et al, 2006). As stated by Doswell (2005) the societal impact of severe convective events requires a detailed analysis to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that originate them in order to enhance operational forecast and surveillance capabilities as part of an integrated response.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak

Bech¹,

Pascual

Rigo³

et al. 2007

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents an observational study of the tornado outbreak that took place on the 7 September 2005 in the Llobregat delta river, affecting a densely populated and urbanised area and the Barcelona International airport (NE Spain). The site survey confirmed at least five short-lived tornadoes. Four of them were weak (F0, F1) and the other one was significant (F2 on the Fujita scale). They started mostly as waterspouts and moved later inland causing extensive damage estimated in 9 million Euros, three injured people but fortunately no fatalities. Large scale forcing was provided by upper level diffluence and low level warm air advection. Satellite and weather radar images revealed the development of the cells that spawned the waterspouts along a mesoscale convergence line in a highly sheared and relatively low buoyant environment. Further analysis indicated characteristics that could be attributed indistinctively to nonsupercell or to mini-supercell thunderstorms.

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“…National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings are one of the most essential services provided to the general public, private sector, and the integrated warning team (IWT), which is composed of broadcast media, emergency managers, and other decision makers in the realm of public safety (Doswell 2005;Dix and Fieux 2011;NWS/Warning Decision Training Branch 2013). These tornado warnings, communicated through multiple sources, in addition to improvements in technology and public education, can be partially credited for the overall decreasing trend in tornado-related deaths over the past century (Brooks and Doswell 2001;Coleman et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Products

Blair

Leighton

2014

Weather and Forecasting

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Real-time confirmation of a tornado specified in National Weather Service (NWS) warnings and statements is believed to increase the credibility and urgency of these critical warning messages for the end user, because it represents the greatest degree of certainty that the hazard exists. This timely tornado information disseminated in official NWS products and relayed through multiple sources by private and public partners may help the public believe, personalize, confirm, and respond to the warning message. This is the first study to explicitly assess the frequency of real-time confirmation of ongoing tornadoes within NWS products and explore what unique conditions may facilitate or hinder this process. Tornado reports and their respective NWS warnings and statements during a 5-yr period from 2007 to 2011 across the central contiguous United States were compiled and examined. Overall, 40% of tornadoes were confirmed in NWS products in real time. Increasing tornado pathlength, duration, and intensity subsequently resulted in an increasing likelihood of real-time confirmation prior to the tornado dissipating. The time of day was a factor; nighttime tornadoes were 20% less likely to receive real-time confirmation than daytime events. Additionally, increasing tornado forecast risk in products issued by the Storm Prediction Center corresponded to an increasing likelihood of real-time confirmation. Analysis of these data reveals specific scenarios when tornadoes are more or less likely to be reported in real time, providing some guidance for when timely ground-truth information may or may not be available.

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Progress toward developing a practical societal response to severe convection (2005 EGU Sergei Soloviev Medal Lecture)

Cited by 16 publications

References 37 publications

Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in Europe

Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in Europe

An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak

Assessing Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Products

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