Progress in climate modelling

Simpkins, Graham

doi:10.1038/nclimate3398

Cited by 47 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…To obtain global emissions (Fig. 1 ), we assumed a constant ratio of TWP emissions to CO 2 emissions from the road transport sector (0.49 mg TWP g −1 CO 2 ), using CO 2 emissions from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) 70 inventory (0.5° × 0.5° resolution) for the year 2014. The TWP/CO 2 emission ratio is the average value of the ratios obtained for Norway, Sweden, and Germany, which were all very similar: 0.43, 0.50 and 0.55 mg TWP g −1 CO 2 , respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric transport is a major pathway of microplastics to remote regions

et al. 2020

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In recent years, marine, freshwater and terrestrial pollution with microplastics has been discussed extensively, whereas atmospheric microplastic transport has been largely overlooked. Here, we present global simulations of atmospheric transport of microplastic particles produced by road traffic (TWPstire wear particles and BWPsbrake wear particles), a major source that can be quantified relatively well. We find a high transport efficiencies of these particles to remote regions. About 34% of the emitted coarse TWPs and 30% of the emitted coarse BWPs (100 kt yr −1 and 40 kt yr −1 respectively) were deposited in the World Ocean. These amounts are of similar magnitude as the total estimated direct and riverine transport of TWPs and fibres to the ocean (64 kt yr −1). We suggest that the Arctic may be a particularly sensitive receptor region, where the light-absorbing properties of TWPs and BWPs may also cause accelerated warming and melting of the cryosphere.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric transport is a major pathway of microplastics to remote regions

et al. 2020

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“…More details can be found from the literatures (Yao et al 2017;Chen et al 2018;Lin et al 2019). Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) (Eyring et al 2016;Simpkins 2017;Zhao et al 2018) data are archived by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) (https ://esgf-node. llnl.gov/proje cts/cmip6 /).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation on the precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas in October and November

Dong

Feng

et al. 2020

Clim Dyn

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The reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation (AO) on precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas (SCSA) in October and November during 1979–2014 are investigated. The correlation coefficients between AO and the precipitation in October and November are 0.44 and − 0.31, which are statistically significant at the 99% and 90% confidence levels, respectively. In October (November), the specific humidity exhibits obvious positive (negative) anomalies in the SCSA, and an upward (downward) airflow moving from ground to the upper troposphere (1000–150 hPa) between 10°N and 30°N (10°N and 20°N) is observed with more (less) cloud cover. Moisture budget diagnosis suggests that the precipitation’s increasing (decreasing) in October (November) mainly contributed by zonal moisture flux convergence (divergence). Furthermore, the Rossby wave guided by westerlies tends to motivate positive geopotential height in the upper troposphere over approximately 20°–30°N, 40°–80°E in October, which is accompanied by a stronger anticyclone in the Arabian Sea region. However, in November, the wave train propagating from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal is observed in the form of cyclones and anticyclones. Further analysis reveal that the AO in October may increase precipitation through the southern wave train (along the westerly jet stream from North Africa to the Middle East and South China). Moreover, air-sea interactions over the North Pacific might also generate horseshoe-shaped sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies characterized by positive SST in the central subtropical North Pacific surrounded by negative SST, which may affect the precipitation in the SCSA. Ensemble-mean results from CMIP6 historical simulations further confirm these relationships, and the models that can better simulate the observed positive geopotential height in the Arabian Sea present more consistent precipitation’s increasing over the SCSA in October.

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“…One frequently cited barrier to adaptation is the inadequate provision of climate information to support decision making (Archie et al 2014, Donatti et al 2017. However, this barrier is now being overcome as sustained technical and institutional advances in climate modeling (Street 2016, Brasseur and Gallardo 2016, Simpkins 2017) make climate information increasingly accessible to decision makers. In the European context, for instance, a roadmap for climate services (Street 2016) sets out the first steps toward a future where administrations, businesses, and private citizens can easily access climate information.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Archetypical opportunities for water governance adaptation to climate change

Gotgelf¹,

Roggero²,

Eisenack³

2020

E&S

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We explore opportunities for climate adaptation in the context of water governance. We focus on opportunities linked to the provision of climate information, raising the question of whether they are limited to incremental adaptation, or can also bring about transformational adaptation. We address this question through an archetype analysis based on 26 peer-reviewed articles. In each article, opportunities are identified, coded using the social-ecological system framework, and then bundled into archetypes that encompass similar opportunities reappearing across multiple cases. Results suggest that the provision of climate information can constitute an opportunity for adaptation that goes beyond purely incremental adjustments to a changing climate. Specifically, two of the six archetypes identified enable transformational adaptation by bringing long-term implications of current impacts into focus and by addressing the issue of capacity of existing institutions to respond to climate change. However, there is a high degree of heterogeneity in the characterization of opportunities, and the six archetypes only cover about one in three of the opportunities identified. This indicates the need for further research to develop more streamlined conceptualizations. In this respect, the archetypes identified herewith suggest some avenues for further conceptual development. We also explore policy implications, raising questions regarding the current development of climate services.

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Progress in climate modelling

Cited by 47 publications

References 1 publication

Atmospheric transport is a major pathway of microplastics to remote regions

Atmospheric transport is a major pathway of microplastics to remote regions

Reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation on the precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas in October and November

Archetypical opportunities for water governance adaptation to climate change

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