Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Branstator, Grant; Karoly, David J.; Kumar, Arun; Lau, Ngar‐Cheung; Ropelewski, Chester F.

doi:10.1029/97jc01444

Cited by 1,483 publications

(1,239 citation statements)

References 171 publications

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“…It is well known that the PNA pattern is readily excited by diabatic heating anomalies in the tropical Pacific, for example in association with variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g. Trenberth et al, 1998). In the case of the NAO, the role of influences from the Tropics is less clear, although some studies suggest that such an influence could be significant (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Factors influencing Northern Hemisphere winter mean atmospheric circulation anomalies during the period 1960/61 to 2001/02

Greatbatch

Gollan

Jung

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Influences from the Tropics, the stratosphere and the specification of observed sea surface temperature and sea-ice (SSTSI) on Northern Hemisphere winter mean circulation anomalies during the period 1960/61 to 2001/02 are studied using a relaxation technique applied to the ECMWF model. On interannual time-scales, the Tropics strongly influence the Pacific sector but also the North Atlantic sector, although weakly. The stratosphere is found to be influential on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannual time-scales but is less important over the Pacific sector. Adding the observed SSTSI to the tropical relaxation runs generally improves the model performance on interannual time-scales but degrades/enhances the model's ability to capture the 42-year trend over the Pacific/Atlantic sector. While relaxing the stratosphere to the reanalysis fails to capture the trend over the whole 42-year period, the stratosphere is shown to be influential on the upward trend of the NAO index from 1965 to 1995, but with reduced amplitude compared to previous studies. Influence from the Tropics is found to be important for the trend over both time periods and over both sectors although, across all experiments, we can account for only 30% of the amplitude of the hemispheric trend.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Factors influencing Northern Hemisphere winter mean atmospheric circulation anomalies during the period 1960/61 to 2001/02

Greatbatch

Gollan

Jung

et al. 2012

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…The two most prominent teleconnections in the northern hemisphere are the Paci®c North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and many aspects of their in¯uence upon North American and Atlantic, European, North African climate have been noted (e.g. storm-track and temperature changes; Trenberth et al, 1998;Hurrell, 1995Hurrell, , 1996Lamb and Peppler, 1987;van Loon and Rodgers, 1978).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual variability of European winter weather: the potential vorticity insight

Grant¹

2001

Atmospheric Science Letters

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“…In spite of that, seasonal climate forecasts are able to provide an insight into future climate evolution, because on timescales of seasons and longer, variability in the oceans can lead to significant fluctuations in weather statistics (Neelin et al 1998). An example of a climatic phenomenon in which ocean dynamics play an essential role is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Trenberth et al 1998), which is predictable on a seasonal timescale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developments in dynamical seasonal forecasting relevant to agricultural management

Doblas‐Reyes¹,

Hagedorn²,

Palmer³

2006

Clim. Res.

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Recent developments in dynamical seasonal forecasting of potential relevance to agricultural management are discussed. These developments emphasize the importance of using a fully probabilistic approach at all stages of the forecasting process, from the dynamical ocean-atmosphere models used to predict climate variability at seasonal and interannual time scales, through the models used to downscale the global output to finer scales, to the end-user forecast models. The final goal is to create an end-to-end multi-scale (both in space and time) integrated prediction system that provides skilful, useful predictions of variables with socio-economic interest. Multi-model ensemble predictions made with the leading European global coupled climate models as part of the DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction) project are used as an example to illustrate the potential of producing useful probabilistic predictions of seasonal climate fluctuations and of applying them to crop yield forecasting.

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Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures

Cited by 1,483 publications

References 171 publications

Factors influencing Northern Hemisphere winter mean atmospheric circulation anomalies during the period 1960/61 to 2001/02

Factors influencing Northern Hemisphere winter mean atmospheric circulation anomalies during the period 1960/61 to 2001/02

Interannual variability of European winter weather: the potential vorticity insight

Developments in dynamical seasonal forecasting relevant to agricultural management

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