Prognostic prediction of idiopathic membranous nephropathy using interpretable machine learning

Abstract

Background Established prognostic models of idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN) were limited to traditional modeling methods and did not comprehensively consider clinical and pathological patient data. Based on the electronic medical record (EMR) system, machine learning (ML) was used to construct a risk prediction model for the prognosis of IMN. Methods Data from 418 patients with IMN were diagnosed by renal biopsy at the Fifth Clinical Medical College of Shanxi Medical University. Fifty-nine medical features of the patients could be obtained from EMR, and prediction models were established based on five ML algorithms. The area under the curve, recall rate, accuracy, and F1 were used to evaluate and compare the performances of the models. Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was used to explain the results of the best-performing model. Results One hundred and seventeen patients (28.0%) with IMN experienced adverse events, 28 of them had compound outcomes (ESRD or double serum creatinine (SCr)), and 89 had relapsed. The gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model had the best performance, with the highest AUC (0.892 ± 0.052, 95% CI 0.840–0.945), accuracy (0.909 ± 0.016), recall (0.741 ± 0.092), precision (0.906 ± 0.027), and F1 (0.905 ± 0.020). Recursive feature elimination with random forest and SHAP plots based on LightGBM showed that anti-phospholipase A2 receptor (anti-PLA2R), immunohistochemical immunoglobulin G4 (IHC IgG4), D-dimer (D-DIMER), triglyceride (TG), serum albumin (ALB), aspartate transaminase (AST), β2-microglobulin (BMG), SCr, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) were important risk factors for the prognosis of IMN. Increased risk of adverse events in IMN patients was correlated with high anti-PLA2R and low IHC IgG4. Conclusions This study established a risk prediction model for the prognosis of IMN using ML based on clinical and pathological patient data. The LightGBM model may become a tool for personalized management of IMN patients.