Prognostic Predicting Model of Pancreatic Body Tail Carcinoma Using Clinical and CT Radiomic Data

Abstract

Objective: To collect the clinical, pathological, and computed tomography (CT) data of 143 accepted surgical cases of pancreatic body tail cancer (PBTC) and to model and predict its prognosis. Methods: The clinical, pathological, and CT data of 143 PBTC patients who underwent surgical resection or endoscopic ultrasound biopsy and were pathologically diagnosed in Xiangyang No.1 People's Hospital Hospital from December 2012 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier method was adopted to make survival curves based on the 1 to 5 years’ follow-up data, and then the log-rank was employed to analyze the survival. According to the median survival of 6 months, the PBTC patients were divided into a group with a good prognosis (survival time ≥ 6 months) and a group with a poor prognosis (survival time < 6 months), and further the training set and test set were set at a ratio of 7/3. Then logistic regression was conducted to find independent risk factors, establish predictive models, and further the models were validated. Results: The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that age, diabetes, tumor, node, and metastasis stage, CT enhancement mode, peripancreatic lymph node swelling, nerve invasion, surgery in a top hospital, tumor size, carbohydrate antigen 19-9, carcinoembryonic antigen, Radscore 1/2/3 were the influencing factors of PBTC recurrence. The overall average survival was 7.4 months in this study. The multivariate logistic analysis confirmed that nerve invasion, surgery in top hospital, dilation of the main pancreatic duct, and Radscore 2 were independent factors affecting the mortality of PBTC ( P < .05). In the test set, the combined model achieved the best predictive performance [AUC 0.944, 95% CI (0.826-0.991)], significantly superior to the clinicopathological model [AUC 0.770, 95% CI (0.615-0.886), P = .0145], and the CT radiomics model [AUC 0.883, 95% CI (0.746-0.961), P = .1311], with a good clinical net benefit confirmed by decision curve. The same results were subsequently validated on the test set. Conclusion: The diagnosis and treatment of PBTC are challenging, and survival is poor. Nevertheless, the combined model benefits the clinical management and prognosis of PBTC.