Prognostic modelling of number of patients with retinal vein occlusion in anti‐VEGF therapy

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of the study was to evaluate temporal changes in age‐ and sex‐stratified incidence rates of retinal vein occlusion (RVO) commenced in anti‐vascular endothelial growth factor (anti‐VEGF) treatment, proportion of patients remaining in active anti‐VEGF therapy over time, and to develop a forecasting model for future number of patients with RVO in active anti‐VEGF therapy.MethodsThis was a registry‐based study of patients with RVO in the Capital Region of Denmark from commenced in anti‐VEGF therapy from 1 January 2007 to 30 June 2022. Census data were extracted from Statistics Denmark for incidence rate analyses and forecasting data of future demographics.ResultsA total of 2641 patients with RVO were commenced in anti‐VEGF therapy, of which 2192 were later discontinued. Number of patients rose dramatically during the first years of introduction of anti‐VEGF therapy, after which growth was slower and followed the demographic changes. Trend analyses revealed that the COVID‐19 epidemics impacted with fewer referrals and more aggressive discontinuation practices. Annual incidence of RVO in 2012–2021 was 13.1 per 100 000 (95% CI: 12.6–13.6 per 100 000). Proportion of patients with RVO remaining in active anti‐VEGF treatment was 55.0%, 40.1%, 30.8% and 12.1% after Years 1, 2, 3 and 8, respectively. According to our forecast, number of patients with RVO in active anti‐VEGF therapy will grow slowly but continually at least until year 2035.ConclusionOur study reports incidence rates and provides prognostic modelling of number of patients with RVO in anti‐VEGF therapy.