Prognostic Modeling and Major Dataset Shifts During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was clear that existing recommendations for allocating scarce resources in large disasters were ill-suited for a worldwide respiratory-based pandemic. 1 Yet, more than 2 years and 100 published models later, no consensus has emerged on a modeling approach to determine SARS-CoV-2 mortality risk or progression to severe disease. The methodologic shortfalls of these efforts have been well described, 2 but there are additional important factors to consider.