Prognostic model for older patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after surgery: a SEER population-based analysis

Abstract

Background: The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) increased quickly amid the recent decades among the elder group of people age≥65 years. However, there are not sufficient evidence regarding the clinical features and outcome of older patients. Methods: A retrospective analysis of clinical characteristics and outcomes of 5,893 HCC patients older than 65 years from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Results: A nomogram integrated 6 independent prognostic factors was conducted for HCC patients with age≥65 years, the C-index of the nomogram in predicting OS or CSS in elder HCC patients was 0.732 and 0.740. The predicted probability of nomogram is in good agreement with the actual observations as seen in the calibration curves The NRI of the nomogram also indicated better discrimination power than that exhibited by the grade or stage. Conclusions: The nomogram based on six independent prognostic factors (including age, race, grade, SEER historic stage A, tumor size, and AFP) performed well and can work as useful tool to predict prognosis in HCC patients with age≥65 years old.