Objective
In order to better identify melanoma patients who are, at the time of primary melanoma diagnosis, at high risk of developing brain metastases, primary melanoma characteristics were examined as risk factors for brain metastasis development.
Methods
In a study of two patient cohorts, clinicopathological characteristics prospectively collected at primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosis for patients with/without brain metastasis were assessed in univariate and multivariate analyses using data from two prospectively-collected databases: Melanoma Cooperative Group (MCG) (1972–1982), and Interdisciplinary Melanoma Cooperative Group (IMCG) (2002–2009). Candidate risk factors were evaluated in association with time to brain metastasis via either the log-rank test or Cox proportional hazards regression analysis with/without considering competing risks.
Results
Out of 2341 total patients included in the study, 222 (9.5%) developed brain metastases (median follow-up: 98 months). The median time to brain metastases was 30.5 months, and the median survival time after brain metastases was 4 months. Increased hazard ratios (HR) for brain metastasis were found among thicker (logarithmic value in mm) (MCG – HR=1.97, P<0.0001; IMCG – HR=1.31, P=0.018), ulcerated (MCG –HR=1.93, P=0.01; IMCG – HR=3.14, P<0.0001), and advanced-stage (MCG – HR=2.08, P=0.008; IMCG – HR=2.56, P=0.0002) primary melanomas based on multivariate Cox regression analysis assuming the presence of competing risks.
Conclusions
Primary cutaneous melanoma thickness, ulceration, and stage were identified and validated as risk factors associated with time to melanoma brain metastasis.