Prognosis of aboveground woody biomass in a central Brazilian Cerrado monitored for 27 years after the implementation of management systems

Abstract

Accurate estimation of biomass in natural vegetation sites remains a challenge. Modeling biomass growth and production in Cerrado areas is crucial to understanding the vegetation succession process, especially regarding the changes in biomass accumulation over time. Thus, our objective was to model the growth and production of woody aboveground biomass (living and total) in a cerrado stricto sensu monitored for 27 years after implementing management systems. As expected, the basal area (with a diameter taken at 30 cm from the ground level) is the most important predictor variable and showed a higher correlation with the biomass stocks and allowed accurate and consistent estimates of these accumulated stocks over time. Future estimates of biomass production, generated from growth models that estimate production as a function of parameters observed at previous ages, indicate that maximum stocks of living (25.86 ± 0.15 Mg ha −1 [mean ± standard deviation]) and total aboveground biomass (26.11 ± 0.15 Mg ha −1 ) are expected for a period between 28 and 30 years after the implementation of the management systems, with maximum mean annual increment between 23 and 27 years. Furthermore, the systems of equations obtained simulated reductions up to 30% of biomass after the occurrence of a forest fire at 23 years. Thus, our study can be useful for the decision-making process and developing public policies and strategies for managing and conserving natural resources in the Cerrado biome.

Aerial Biomass Estimation in the Cerrado Biome Using Canopy Height Data

“…Plots sampled in earlier dates did not maintain linear correlations over the decades of measurements between the vegetation structures estimated with the digital model in the year 2020. According to [11], the biomass increment in the typical Cerrado can reach 26.11 ± 0.15 Mg•ha −1 after 28 years of clear-cutting. In this context, the fragments inventoried in 1993, grouped in [13], found significant differences between the values of the plots and the values from the digital biomass model.…”

“…The values of aboveground forest biomass were assessed according to the proportions of live and dead forest biomass, both above and below the ground. A total of 67 documents were reviewed based on the search criteria used, and 16 were selected for the analyses of the present study; see Figure 2 [2,[4][5][6]8,9,[11][12][13][14][16][17][18][19]27,28].…”

“…The second evaluated sample set used the geographic location of statistical parameters related to inventoried populations from 29 forest fragments in different phytophysiognomies, measured at different times, and distributed across the 16 scientific articles found in the Cerrado systematic review [2,[4][5][6]8,9,[11][12][13][14][16][17][18][19]27,28]. Classifications of shrubland, savanna, and forest formations were determined according to the authors' classifications in the articles.…”

“…The measurements conducted in the reviewed articles were dated from 1988 to 2022. Among the evaluated articles, three studies used sequentially measured plots [2,11,27], and only one article mentioned vegetation increment values over time [11], reporting an aboveground biomass increase of 0.93 Mg•ha −1 •year −1 in savanna. The research presented in [5] included measurements both before and after interventions such as wildfires.…”

“…Obtaining accurate estimates of the carbon stock in the different phyto-physiognomies that compose Cerrado is extremely important to support sustainable forest management plans [9]. Modeling growth and biomass production after the implementation of management systems in Cerrado areas is decisive for understanding vegetation succession process, especially regarding changes in biomass accumulation over time [10,11]. Data from multisensory remote sensing platforms combined with data from forest inventories, especially tree height, are efficient technological resources to quantify aerial biomass on a large scale [12].…”