Prognosemärkte

Journal of Business Research

Siglow

Sendra-García

2020

Self Cite

The scenario technique is widely used to cope with uncertainties plan for alternate future situations. The extensive research led to a scattered literature landscape. To organize the field quantitatively, we conduct bibliometric performance analyses and a bibliographic coupling analysis. Results show an increased interest in scenario research since 2009 and clear distinctions between strategic and operational as well as methodological and applied research. Future research can be expected to further enhance the method towards robust decision making and to combine it with methods searching for most likely scenarios, such as prediction markets, crowdsourcing, and superforecasting. Additionally, cognitive and behavioral aspects of using the scenario technique might draw further attention. The scenario technique is expected to be applied across all industries and will probably play an increasing role in currently underrepresented business functions such as marketing and innovation.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities

Journal of Business Research

Siglow

Sendra-García

2020

Self Cite

“…Delphi studies are a systematic method that, with the help of expert opinions, generates the most likely future scenario. Future research could also use other methods such as prediction markets [ 151 , 152 ]. Additionally, Delphi scenario only describes a probable future but does not theoretically explain how it emerges [ 153 , 154 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Will We Dine? Prospective Shifts in International Haute Cuisine and Innovation beyond Kitchen and Plate

Schwark

Fabro

2020

Foods

Self Cite

Haute cuisine, the cooking style for fine dining at gourmet restaurants, has changed over the last decades and can be expected to evolve in the upcoming years. To engage in foresight, the purpose of this study is to identify a plausible future trend scenario for the haute cuisine sector within the next five to ten years, based on today’s chefs’ views. To achieve this goal, an international, two-stage Delphi study was conducted. The derived scenario suggests that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will lead to significant restaurant bankruptcies and will raise creativity and innovation among the remaining ones. It is expected that haute cuisine tourism will grow and that menu prices will differ for customer segments. More haute cuisine restaurants will open in Asia and America. Local food will remain a major trend and will be complemented by insect as well as plant-based proteins and sophisticated nonalcoholic food pairings. Restaurant design and the use of scents will become more relevant. Also, private dining and fine dining at home will become more important. The scenario also includes negative projections. These findings can serve as a research agenda for future research in haute cuisine, including the extension of the innovation lens towards the restaurant and the business model. Practical implications include the necessity for haute cuisine restaurants to innovate to cope with increasing competition in several regions. Customers should be seen as co-creators of the value of haute cuisine.

“…Instead of using a Delphi technique, the application of other group-based forecasting methods could have been possible. For example, we chose not to use a prediction market – which simulates “stock” exchanges on which future statements are traded to find their probability of occurrence as the “stock” price (Arrow et al , 2008; Tiberius and Rasche, 2011) – because the determination of the valid equilibrium price for each projection requires the heavy trading of a large number of participants, the forecast accuracy is quite low and the participants are somewhat unsatisfied with the process (Graefe and Armstrong, 2011). As another alternative, we chose not to use crowdsourcing as a forecasting method because it is based only on many layperson opinions (Flostrand, 2017), which we did not find appropriate for assessing the specific projections (Graefe and Armstrong, 2011; Rowe and Wright, 2001).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

My home is your castle: forecasting the future of accommodation sharing

Gassmann

Nunkoo

et al. 2021

IJCHM

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Purpose This paper aims to formulate the most probable future scenario for the accommodation sharing sector within the next five to ten years. It addresses the following six thematic aspects: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies the most likely holistic future scenario by conducting a two-stage Delphi study involving 59 expert panelists. It addresses 33 projections for six thematic sections of the accommodation sharing industry: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Findings The results indicate that the number of shared accommodations and users of home-sharing will increase. Moreover, the cost advantage is the predominant driver for users to engage in the accommodation sharing segment, and for the hosts, the generation of an extra income is the primary incentive. Finally, the regulation within this industry is expected to be more effective in the foreseeable future. Practical implications The results are critical, not only to advance our theoretical understanding and stimulate critical discussions on the long-term development of accommodation sharing but also to assist governments and policymakers who have an interest in developing and regulating this sector and developers seeking business opportunities. Originality/value While there is ample knowledge about the past and current development of accommodation sharing in tourism, little is understood about its potential future development and implications for consumers, the economy, and society. To date, no scientific research is available that develops scenarios about the future of accommodation sharing.