Abstract:Decision making in pest management is a challenging task. While pest dynamics are often quite uncertain, such decisions are often based on tenuous assumptions of certainty (economic injury levels and marginal utility approximations). To overcome such assumptions and adequately consider uncertainty, we apply decision analysis to evaluate management strategies used by farmers in the Colombian Caribbean against the boll weevil (BW). We represent the decision to protect the crop using partial budget analysis. This… Show more
“…Dos ejemplos recientes en el área de protección de cultivos muestran tales aplicaciones de AD en el manejo de plagas (Burbano-Figueroa, 2021) y enfermedades (Ruett et al, 2020). Además, el AD tiene el potencial de proveer un marco referencial común para el manejo de plagas y enfermedades que permite hacer comparaciones entre manejo profiláctico (aplicaciones calendario, por ejemplo), el manejo reactivo (referido comúnmente como umbral de daño económico), y el control biológico (Burbano-Figueroa et al, 2022b;Mumford & Norton, 1984).…”
Introduction / objective: Nowadays society demands from agricultural systems not only the provision of goods for the market but also environmental and social services. This transformation is a challenge due to the unpredictability of executing actions in a complex system with no certainty that it will lead to the desired outcome. This perspective paper describes the application of Decision Analysis (DA) for such uncertain scenarios of decision-making in agricultural systems. Methodology: This paper describes a general protocol for the implementation of DA, proposes a temporal-spatial framework for the application of DA in agricultural systems using concepts of Decision Theory and strategic planning, and introduces a case study for describing how this framework can be applied to agricultural innovation systems. Results: Problems in agricultural systems can be outlined as decision analysis models of specific spatial-temporal scale (planning horizons). This framework has potential for the application of DA in the planning efforts of the Colombian National Agricultural Innovation System, but especially in the implementation of Regional Innovation Systems. Conclusions: We provided an extended DA framework aimed to constitute a sound basis for finding solutions in the complex setting of agricultural systems, for planning actions of science, technology and innovation and for supporting the decision making process of sustainability transformation of agricultural systems.
“…Dos ejemplos recientes en el área de protección de cultivos muestran tales aplicaciones de AD en el manejo de plagas (Burbano-Figueroa, 2021) y enfermedades (Ruett et al, 2020). Además, el AD tiene el potencial de proveer un marco referencial común para el manejo de plagas y enfermedades que permite hacer comparaciones entre manejo profiláctico (aplicaciones calendario, por ejemplo), el manejo reactivo (referido comúnmente como umbral de daño económico), y el control biológico (Burbano-Figueroa et al, 2022b;Mumford & Norton, 1984).…”
Introduction / objective: Nowadays society demands from agricultural systems not only the provision of goods for the market but also environmental and social services. This transformation is a challenge due to the unpredictability of executing actions in a complex system with no certainty that it will lead to the desired outcome. This perspective paper describes the application of Decision Analysis (DA) for such uncertain scenarios of decision-making in agricultural systems. Methodology: This paper describes a general protocol for the implementation of DA, proposes a temporal-spatial framework for the application of DA in agricultural systems using concepts of Decision Theory and strategic planning, and introduces a case study for describing how this framework can be applied to agricultural innovation systems. Results: Problems in agricultural systems can be outlined as decision analysis models of specific spatial-temporal scale (planning horizons). This framework has potential for the application of DA in the planning efforts of the Colombian National Agricultural Innovation System, but especially in the implementation of Regional Innovation Systems. Conclusions: We provided an extended DA framework aimed to constitute a sound basis for finding solutions in the complex setting of agricultural systems, for planning actions of science, technology and innovation and for supporting the decision making process of sustainability transformation of agricultural systems.
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