Production Forecasting for Shale Oil: Workflow

Rincones, M. D.; Lee, W. J.; Rutledge, J. M.

doi:10.2118/177018-ms

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 20 publications

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“…As stated previously, the newly proposed model is suitable for wells with production in the boundary-dominated flow period. It has been recognized that the production rate declines with material balance time with slopes of −1/2 and −1 during the linear flow and boundary-dominated flow periods, respectively, in the log-log plot when there is no skin effect [33]. Many multi-fractured horizontal wells producing from shale reservoirs have been reported to experience a long-term linear flow (transient flow) period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analytical Model for Capturing the Decline of Fracture Conductivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend from Production Data

2019

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Fracture conductivity decline is a concern in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) wells due to the high content of clay in the shale. An analytical well productivity model was developed in this study considering the pressure-dependent conductivity of hydraulic fractures. The log-log diagnostic approach was used to identify the boundary-dominated flow regime rather than the linear flow regime. Case studies of seven TMS wells indicated that the proposed model allows approximation of the field data with good accuracy. Production data analyses with the model revealed that the pressure-dependent fracture conductivity in the TMS in the Mississippi section declines following a logarithmic mode, with dimensionless coefficient χ varying between 0.116 and 0.130. The pressure-dependent decline of fracture conductivity in the transient flow period is more significant than that in the boundary-dominated flow period.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analytical Model for Capturing the Decline of Fracture Conductivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend from Production Data

2019

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Use of a New Analytical Model To Match Production Data and Identify Opportunities To Maximize Well Productivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Reservoir

Guo

Yang

2019

SPE Production &Amp; Operations

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Summary The low productivity of the oil wells in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) Trend, located in Louisiana and Mississippi, is a mystery. Production data from 55 wells in the TMS Trend were analyzed to identify possible means of enhancing well productivity. The −1/2 slope in a log–log plot for reservoir linear flow (RLF) was observed for some wells, but not all, and the −1 slope for boundary–dominated flow (BDF) has not been seen in the past 5 years of production. The behavior of the TMS wells is attributed to the ultralow permeability of the TMS matrix and the decline of fracture conductivity, both of which delay the BDF. On the basis of the concept of the distance of investigation, derived from the radius–of–investigation concept, the matrix permeability of the seven TMS wells was estimated to be between 34 and 65 nd, with an average of 51 nd. A new mathematical model for production decline of multifractured horizontal wells was developed taking into consideration the time–dependent fracture conductivity during the BDF period. This model fits TMS–well production data, with an average error of 6.12% and an R2 value of 0.96. Assuming constant matrix permeability, fitting the new model to the production data in the BDF period gives a rate of fracture–conductivity decline of between 0.20 and 0.74% per month. The new mathematical model reveals opportunities to optimize well completion to enhance well productivity in the TMS Trend. For a given amount of fracture proppant allocated to a well, the shortest possible fracture spacing should be used to maximize well productivity. If the number of fractures is fixed as a constraint of well completion design, well productivity is inversely proportional to the square root of fracture spacing (i.e., if the fracture spacing is shortened by fourfold, well productivity is expected to double). If the horizontal wellbore length is fixed as a constraint of well completion, well productivity is inversely proportional to fracture spacing (i.e., if the fracture spacing is shortened by 50%, well productivity is expected to double).

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Primary Depletion Characterization with No Flow Boundaries Drainage Concept

Prabowo,

Rincones,

Boyd

et al. 2023

Day 1 Tue, December 19, 2023

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In unconventional reservoirs, spacing and stacking directly influence the hydrocarbon resources available to be drained by a given lateral. Hypothetically, these available resources, rock properties and stimulation effectiveness will drive the well performance (i.e., Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)). Characterization of the effectively contacted volume is an important element in understanding the well performance and the depletion efficiency of the intended development. This paper will present a simple but novel way of characterizing a well's drainage volume and demonstrates how this characterization can be applied to improve the understanding of expected well recovery, primary depletion efficiency (i.e., recovery factor), and their relationship with petrophysics and geology. The methodology is proposed as a method to help lead to optimum development and resource economic value for the operator. The proposed method uses the concept of no flow boundaries driven by frac geometry established between wells to define a drainage polygon surrounding neighboring laterals. Incorporating supplementary datasets allows further characterization (i.e., well-log to obtain fluid-in-place distribution). The method provides insights which can be tied back to the well performance. For example, the method shows the importance of geology and petrophysics, reflected through the Original Oil in Place (OOIP) within the drainage volume, driving the well's EUR and recovery factor. Significance/Novelty: Improved reservoir drainage volume and well performance characterization can significantly impact the optimum development plan, maximizing both the exploitation efficiency and value for operators.

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Production Forecasting for Shale Oil: Workflow

Cited by 4 publications

References 20 publications

An Analytical Model for Capturing the Decline of Fracture Conductivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend from Production Data

An Analytical Model for Capturing the Decline of Fracture Conductivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend from Production Data

Use of a New Analytical Model To Match Production Data and Identify Opportunities To Maximize Well Productivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Reservoir

Primary Depletion Characterization with No Flow Boundaries Drainage Concept

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