Producing regional estimates of population size for common and widespread breeding birds from national monitoring data

Norman, David; Harris, Robert J.; Newson, Stuart E.

doi:10.1080/00063657.2011.623766

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The IMBCR program and several programs in the CBMS [ 18 ] employ data collection protocols that allow direct estimates of population size accounting for incomplete detection and provide valid estimates of precision [ 27 , 45 , 49 ]. Conversely, population estimation from the BBS requires several assumptions about the observation process without valid estimates of precision, and includes the assumption that population size along roads is identical in regions away from roads [ 25 , 30 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because the design is based on the fundamentals of sampling theory [ 28 , 38 ], the program ensures unbiased population estimates, valid estimates of precision and strong inference to bird populations in monitoring region. In addition, the hierarchical design ( Fig 2 ) has a natural connection to hierarchical models [ 89 ] and model-based approaches for population and occupancy estimation [ 17 , 18 ], trend estimation [ 90 ], landscape and habitat ecology [ 1 , 80 ], species distribution modeling [ 79 , 91 ] and community modeling [ 23 , 92 ]. Finally, the hierarchical design of the IMBCR program provides a data platform to develop coordinated conservation strategies, prioritize management actions and geographic areas, and effectively address the “what to do” and “where to do it” questions in conservation planning [ 82 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Quality monitoring data is essential for conservation science where hypothesis-based predictions are compared to observed population responses to inform management [ 2 , 16 ]. Statistically defensible monitoring designs for estimating population state variables are needed to address uncertainties for the conservation of bird populations [ 4 , 17 , 18 ]. In addition, monitoring data are essential for the application of adaptive management, with sampling designs integrated within the management and decision making process [ 4 , 19 , 20 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

Pavlacky¹,

Lukacs

Blakesley³

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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Monitoring is an essential component of wildlife management and conservation. However, the usefulness of monitoring data is often undermined by the lack of 1) coordination across organizations and regions, 2) meaningful management and conservation objectives, and 3) rigorous sampling designs. Although many improvements to avian monitoring have been discussed, the recommendations have been slow to emerge in large-scale programs. We introduce the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program designed to overcome the above limitations. Our objectives are to outline the development of a statistically defensible sampling design to increase the value of large-scale monitoring data and provide example applications to demonstrate the ability of the design to meet multiple conservation and management objectives. We outline the sampling process for the IMBCR program with a focus on the Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17). We provide two examples for the Brewer’s sparrow (Spizella breweri) in BCR 17 demonstrating the ability of the design to 1) determine hierarchical population responses to landscape change and 2) estimate hierarchical habitat relationships to predict the response of the Brewer’s sparrow to conservation efforts at multiple spatial scales. The collaboration across organizations and regions provided economy of scale by leveraging a common data platform over large spatial scales to promote the efficient use of monitoring resources. We designed the IMBCR program to address the information needs and core conservation and management objectives of the participating partner organizations. Although it has been argued that probabilistic sampling designs are not practical for large-scale monitoring, the IMBCR program provides a precedent for implementing a statistically defensible sampling design from local to bioregional scales. We demonstrate that integrating conservation and management objectives with rigorous statistical design and analyses ensures reliable knowledge about bird populations that is relevant and integral to bird conservation at multiple scales.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

Pavlacky¹,

Lukacs

Blakesley³

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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show abstract

“…Despite the enormous amount of effort and funds expended in population monitoring for conservation, there is considerable controversy over the validity of artificial population size estimates predicted through sampling and inference from statistical procedures (Newson et al 2005;Murgui 2011;Norman et al 2011). Part of the controversy arises because the increasing complexity of the analytical procedures prevents a full understanding of how the predictions of population size were obtained, often generating mistrust of the unknown.…”

Section: The Imperative Need For Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety in numbers? Supplanting data quality with fanciful models in wildlife monitoring and conservation

et al. 2012

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Ecologists and conservation biologists seem increasingly attracted to sophisticated modelling approaches, sometimes at the expense of attention to data quality and appropriateness of fieldwork design. This dissociation may lead to a loss of perspective promoting biological unrealities as conclusions, which may be used in conservation applications. We illustrate this concern by focusing on recent attempts to estimate population size of breeding birds at large scales without any explicit testing of the reliability of the predictions through comparison with direct counts. Disconnection of analysts from ''nature'' can lead to cases of biological unrealities such as that used here to illustrate such trends. To counter this risk, we encourage investment in well-rounded scientists or more collaborative, multi-disciplinary teams capable of integrating sophisticated analyses with in-depth knowledge of the natural history of their study subjects.

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“…These approaches typically rely on simultaneous surveys of multiple species to analytically predict rather than directly quantify the number of individuals forming the populations of common birds (Pollock et al, 2002, Elphick 2008, Johnson 2008, Norman et al 2012. Regional and national government agencies and international institutions often call for and partially or fully finance these estimates, which may eventually be considered 'official' ones for assigning conservation status categories and for implementing management actions (Murgui Pérez 2011, Musgrove et al 2013.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Commonness of not-so-common birds: the need for baseline knowledge of actual population size for the validation of population size predictions

Blanco

Frías

Cuevas³

et al. 2014

Bird Study

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Producing regional estimates of population size for common and widespread breeding birds from national monitoring data

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

A statistically rigorous sampling design to integrate avian monitoring and management within Bird Conservation Regions

Safety in numbers? Supplanting data quality with fanciful models in wildlife monitoring and conservation

Commonness of not-so-common birds: the need for baseline knowledge of actual population size for the validation of population size predictions

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