Process supporting strategic decision-making in systemic transitions

Auvinen, Heidi; Ruutu, Sampsa; Tuominen, Anu; Ahlqvist, Toni; Oksanen, Juha

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.07.011

Cited by 29 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Therefore, Paper IV used empirical data collected with a Delphi survey, employing a web-based questionnaire and semi-structured interviews, which utilised the system transition roadmap introduced by Auvinen et al (2015). The general aim of the Delphi is to obtain the expertise, opinions and arguments of a specific group (van de Linde and van der Duin 2011).…”

Section: Descriptive and Participative Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Hurmekoski¹

2016

Diss. For.

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The aim of the study is to examine the factors affecting the market potential of wood construction in Europe towards 2030. The study takes three complementary perspectives: Past trends and current structures, future trends and uncertainties and measures required to meet the long-term targets of the industries.The methodological framework builds on combining quantitative, descriptive and participative research approaches. By adopting methods and approaches from the field of foresight, the study aims to contribute also to the methodology development for long-term forest sector outlook studies.The trends and pressures in the operating environment of construction were found to primarily relate to the need for reducing the environmental impact of construction and improving the quality and productivity of construction. However, few of the trends would appear to have decisive impact on the diffusion of wood construction. That is, the positive drivers might not translate into improved competitive advantage for wood construction to the extent often expected, due to the lack of willingness or ability to pay for the attributes exceeding the requirements posed by the building regulations. Instead, the cultural and structural hindrances culminating to the fragmented structure and risk-averse characteristics of the construction and wood products industries seem to create significant inertia for the diffusion of wood construction.Based on scenario analysis, the outlook would appear to be dependent on the possible regulatory push for green building and on the possible changes in the strategic orientations of the industries. However, the empirical part indicated that the short-term strategy and policy measures suggested by experts are regarded either as unlikely or as unattractive by the industry stakeholders. The results therefore suggest that the diffusion of wood construction in Europe is likely to be a gradual process, subject to significant inertia, and restricted to a few niche sub-sectors and regions towards 2030.

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Section: Descriptive and Participative Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Hurmekoski¹

2016

Diss. For.

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“…Thus, analytical frameworks are needed to guide the analysis of transition processes. The Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) [28,29] is an analytical framework that can guide data collection and the gathering of relevant information (e.g., Auvinen et al [30]). Various transition scholars have applied the MLP to analyze elements of past transition processes including niches (e.g., sustainability innovations), regime elements and landscape signals (e.g., References [31,32]).…”

Section: Step 1: Problem and Actor Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Methodological Framework to Initiate and Design Transition Governance Processes

Halbe

Pahl‐Wostl

2019

Sustainability

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Sustainability transitions require societal change at multiple levels ranging from individual behavioral change to community projects, businesses that offer sustainable products as well as policy-makers that set suitable incentive structures. Concepts, methods and tools are currently lacking that help to initiate and design transition governance processes based upon an encompassing understanding of such diverse interactions of actors and intervention points. This article presents a methodological framework for the initiation and design of transition governance processes. Based upon a conceptualization of sustainability transitions as multilevel learning processes, the methodological framework includes participatory modeling, a systematic literature review and governance system analysis to identify social units (learning subjects and contexts), challenges (learning objects) and intervention points (learning factors) relevant for initiating case-specific transition governance processes. A case study on sustainable food systems in Ontario, Canada is provided to exemplify the application of the methodological framework. The results demonstrate the merit of combining stakeholder-based and expert-based methods, as several learning factors identified in the participatory process could not be found in the general literature, and vice versa. The methodological framework allowed for an integrated analysis of the diversity of existing initiatives in the case study region and specific intervention points to support place-based sustainability innovations. Initiators of transition governance processes can use the results by designing targeted interventions to facilitate and coordinate existing initiatives or by setting new impulses through purposeful action.

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“…Socio-technical scenarios were initially used together with the multilevel perspective (Geels, 2002) and focused on niche/regime developments. This has evolved into a form of scenario that offers a more qualitative approach and considers both technology and society (Hillman and Sandén, 2008), and can combine quantitative and qualitative analysis (Auvinen et al, 2015). It also has the potential to include storylines to describe the scenarios and relate them to the context (Weimer-Jehle et al, 2016), as well as explaining development processes rather than just final outcomes (Hillman and Sandén, 2008).…”

Section: Socio-technical Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of biogas in a more sustainable energy system in Sweden

Dahlgren

2019

Linköping Studies in Science and Technology. Licentiate Thesis

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There are numerous problems in the world that need to be dealt with in order to achieve sustainable development. The energy system has significant negative impacts on many of these problems, and there is a need for a transition towards more sustainable energy. Sweden has already started this transition and is using large amounts of renewable energy. However, within the transport sector and the manufacturing sector in particular, large amounts of fossil fuels are still used. Biogas is one alternative that can help solve several sustainability problems and that could be part of a future more sustainable energy system. However, it is not certain what biogas is most suitable to be used for. The aim of this thesis is to investigate how biogas should be used in a future more sustainable energy system, by answering three research questions: 1) In what ways can biogas be used in a more sustainable energy system? 2) How can we assess whether biogas is suitable in a specific context? and 3) What determines whether it is easy or difficult for a user to start using biogas? These questions are explored in a Swedish context using four appended articles, which are based on two collaborative projects using a combination of workshops, literature reviews and interviews. Biogas can be used for heat, electricity or fuel in the manufacturing or transport sector. In Sweden, heat and electricity are mainly of interest for smaller production scales, while production on larger scales will likely be dominated by upgrading mostly to CBG but also to LBG. CBG can be used for less energy-intensive purposes, such as cars or buses, while the growing interest in LBG in Sweden may open up new market segments for biogas which are more energy-intensive, such as heavy trucks or shipping, or in geographical locations that are further away from the site of production. Several sustainability assessment methods exist that can be used to evaluate whether biogas is suitable in a specific context, such as multi-criteria assessments or scenario analyses. These methods can include a number of different aspects that are relevant to biogas use, such as GHG emissions, safety issues, and the vitality of the surrounding region. In order to introduce biogas, six main factors were identified that can make this easier or more difficult: technical maturity, tank volume, distance between the producer and the user, scale of energy use, policies and costs, and strategies of individual organizations. Overall, the rise in LBG production creates new opportunities for biogas use in both geographical and usage areas that did not previously use biogas. There is no simple answer to what biogas should be used for in the futurerather, this depends on the circumstances. It is also possible that the usage areas that are most suitable now for biogas might not be the most suitable areas in the future, depending on developments within, for example, the electricity system and hydrogen. However, CBG and LBG are likely to dominate biogas production in Sweden until then.

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Process supporting strategic decision-making in systemic transitions

Cited by 29 publications

References 27 publications

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

A Methodological Framework to Initiate and Design Transition Governance Processes

The role of biogas in a more sustainable energy system in Sweden

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