Procedure to Calibrate and Verify Numerical Models of Estuarine Hydrodynamics

Hsu, Ming‐Hsi; Kuo, Albert Y.; Kuo, J.B.; Liu, Wen‐Cheng

doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9429(1999)125:2(166)

Cited by 112 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In the literature, several statistical indexes have been used to evaluate the predictions obtained by numerical models [20][21][22][23][24], the root mean square error (RMSE) being one of the most widely used for calibration and validation [25][26][27][28][29]. For the case of water depths in curved channels, the literature reports RMSE values in the range of 0.0009 to 0.055 m [30].…”

Section: Statistic Indexesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New methodology for calibration of hydrodynamic models in curved open-channel flow

Gómez-Zambrano

López-Ríos

Toro-Botero³

2017

Rev. Fac. Ing. Univ. Antioquia

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This paper evaluates a new methodology for calibration of hydrodynamic models based on the theory of statistical design of experiments. An Eulerian-Eulerian hydrodynamic homogeneous model, integrated by the commercial software CFX Ansys Inc., is used to perform the numerical experiments. For the screening step, the fractional factorial experimental design 2 7-2 was used, followed by a Draper-Lin design of second order to find the optimum point in the calibration. A new method is introduced to generate the level of points to the center and to carry out the test of lack of fit. In this work, we develop a validated methodology for the calibration of deterministic hydrodynamic models with several factors, suggesting a second-order regression model for forecasting the optimum point of the simulations, with acceptable accuracy in predicting the response variable. RESUMEN:Se propone una nueva metodología para la calibración de modelos hidrodinámicos a partir de la aplicación del diseño estadístico de experimentos. Un modelo hidrodinámico Euleriano-Euleriano homogéneo se usa para realizar los experimentos numéricos, el cual está incorporado en el software comercial CFX de Ansys Inc. En la etapa de calibración se utiliza un diseño factorial fraccionado, 2 7-2 , seguido de un diseño Draper-Lin de segundo orden, para encontrar el punto óptimo de la calibración. Se introduce un nuevo método para generar los niveles de los puntos al centro necesarios para la realización de la prueba de falta de ajuste, logrando configurar una metodología validada para la calibración de modelos hidrodinámicos determinísticos con varios factores de entrada. Se logra un modelo de regresión de segundo orden para la predicción del punto óptimo de las simulaciones, con una aceptable precisión en la predicción de la variable de respuesta analizada. information provided is not enough to be applied directly to hydrodynamic simulation because it does not specify how to replicate points with numerical experimentation [3][4][5][6][7].To overcome this problem, the statistical theory of the lack of fit with no replications was used to generate the information for the neighbor points, treating them as the real points to the center [8,9]. Additionally, the descending scaling methodology was used to identify the points of minima outside the initial experimental region [1,2].The numerical simulations in this work were performed by an Eulerian-Eulerian hydrodynamic model for the conservation of mass and momentum laws. It was applied to a two-phase flow of water and air, in order to find the interface surface between these two fluids, which is useful

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Section: Statistic Indexesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New methodology for calibration of hydrodynamic models in curved open-channel flow

Gómez-Zambrano

López-Ríos

Toro-Botero³

2017

Rev. Fac. Ing. Univ. Antioquia

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“…Numerous model validation techniques exist; for a comprehensive overview read for example Bellocchi et al (2010). The procedures to perform the task of validation appear in several forms, depending on data availability, system characteristics and researchers' opinions (Hsu et al, 1999). A common strategy is to examine the model's simulation versus actual observations acquired from the real world using common statistical metrics, and several validation studies of this type have been undertaken globally (Henderson-Sellers et al, 1995;Viterbo and Beljaars, 1995;Liang et al, 1998;Wang et al, 2007;Abramowitz et al, 2008;Slevin et al, 2015).…”

Section: G P Petropoulos Et Al: Quantifying the Prediction Accuracmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the prediction accuracy of a 1-D SVAT model at a range of ecosystems in the USA and Australia: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

et al. 2015

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Abstract. This paper describes the validation of the SimSphere SVAT (Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer) model conducted at a range of US and Australian ecosystem types. Specific focus was given to examining the models' ability in predicting shortwave incoming solar radiation (R g ), net radiation (R net ), latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H ), air temperature at 1.3 m (T air 1.3 m ) and air temperature at 50 m (T air 50 m ). Model predictions were compared against corresponding in situ measurements acquired for a total of 72 selected days of the year 2011 obtained from eight sites belonging to the AmeriFlux (USA) and OzFlux (Australia) monitoring networks. Selected sites were representative of a variety of environmental, biome and climatic conditions, to allow for the inclusion of contrasting conditions in the model evaluation.Overall, results showed a good agreement between the model predictions and the in situ measurements, particularly so for the R g , R net , T air 1.3 m and T air 50 m parameters. The simulated R g parameter exhibited a root mean square deviation (RMSD) within 25 % of the observed fluxes for 58 of the 72 selected days, whereas an RMSD within ∼ 24 % of the observed fluxes was reported for the R net parameter for all days of study (RMSD = 58.69 W m −2 ). A systematic underestimation of R g and R net (mean bias error (MBE) = −19.48 and −16.46 W m −2 ) was also found. Simulations for the T air 1.3 m and T air 50 m showed good agreement with the in situ observations, exhibiting RMSDs of 3.23 and 3.77 • C (within ∼ 15 and ∼ 18 % of the observed) for all days of analysis, respectively. Comparable, yet slightly less satisfactory simulation accuracies were exhibited for the H and LE parameters (RMSDs = 38.47 and 55.06 W m −2 , ∼ 34 and ∼ 28 % of the observed). Highest simulation accuracies were obtained for the open woodland savannah and mulga woodland sites for most of the compared parameters. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for all parameters ranges from 0.720 to 0.998, suggesting a very good model representation of the observations.To our knowledge, this study presents the most detailed evaluation of SimSphere done so far, and the first validation of it conducted in Australian ecosystem types. Findings are important and timely, given the expanding use of the model both as an educational and research tool today. This includes ongoing research by different space agencies examining its synergistic use with Earth observation data towards the development of global operational products.

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“…Generally, saltwater intrusion reaches 25-30 km from the mouth of the Danshuei River. The hydrodynamic characteristics in the system are primarily controlled by the tide, river inflow and density gradient induced by the mixing of seawater and freshwater [25,26].…”

Section: Description Of Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Influence of Nonpoint Source and Discharge Changes on Water Quality in a Tidal River Estuary Using a Three-Dimensional Model

Liu

Chan

2014

Environments

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Abstract:The change of nonpoint source and freshwater discharge as a result of land use change might affect the water quality in a river. In the current study, a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was created and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system and its adjacent coastal ocean. The hydrodynamic and water quality models were validated using observations of water surface elevation, salinity distribution and water quality state variables. The predictions of hydrodynamics, salinity, dissolved oxygen and nutrients from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observational data. The validated model was then used to investigate the possible effects of the nonpoint source and freshwater discharge changes at the upstream reaches on water quality conditions in the Danshuei River estuarine system. Three scenarios were investigated to predict the dissolved oxygen using model simulations. The simulated results indicated that increasing nonpoint sources at the upstream reaches degraded the dissolved oxygen under low flow conditions. However, increasing freshwater discharges at the upstream reaches would overcome the loadings of the nonpoint source, which would result in increasing the dissolved oxygen in the tidal river estuary. The model can provide a useful tool for developing management practices for nonpoint sources to protect the water quality in the estuarine system. OPEN ACCESSEnvironments 2014, 1 158

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Procedure to Calibrate and Verify Numerical Models of Estuarine Hydrodynamics

Cited by 112 publications

References 10 publications

New methodology for calibration of hydrodynamic models in curved open-channel flow

New methodology for calibration of hydrodynamic models in curved open-channel flow

Quantifying the prediction accuracy of a 1-D SVAT model at a range of ecosystems in the USA and Australia: evidence towards its use as a tool to study Earth's system interactions

Assessing the Influence of Nonpoint Source and Discharge Changes on Water Quality in a Tidal River Estuary Using a Three-Dimensional Model

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