Procedure rework: a dynamic process with implications for the “rework cycle” and “disaster dynamics”

Abstract

Archetypal dynamic structures link the behaviors of the diverse systems of interest to system dynamics modelers. In this article, dynamic behaviors of Procedure Rework processes-used in system operations to update procedures as they are invalidated by changes in the system state and its environment-are linked to two archetypal structures: the "rework cycle" and "disaster dynamics". A case study focused on procedure rework in Space Shuttle Mission Control and involving the development of simulation models of procedure rework calibrated with data from five Space Shuttle missions is presented. A detrimental effect in the process-the rework propagation end-of-mission effect-is identified and linked to three general aspects of rework (rework time horizons, propagation of rework beyond the time horizons, and events forcing timely completion of all remaining rework) that may be improved upon in this and other rework processes. Furthermore, the effect's causes are characterized as examples of endogenous causal mechanisms for disaster dynamics.

System Dynamics Approach to Mitigating Skilled Labour Shortages in the Construction Industry: A South Africa Context

“…Investigations regarding various aspects of construction and applications of SD to evolve solutions have been taken up by several scholars since the last four decades. Some examples of SD applications in construction are: Cooper (1980Cooper ( , 1993, Abdel-Hamid (1984); Sterman (1998, 2003); Rahmandad and Hu (2010); Owens and Leveson (2011) and Haghani (2012, 2013). Also, Lyneis and Ford (2007) provided a detailed discussion regarding SD applications on various aspects of construction delays and rework.…”

System Dynamics Review and publications 1985–2017: analysis, synthesis and contributions

“…SD scholars have also developed several applications that enable people to understand and improve the actions embedded in complex systems. In fact, more than 57 percent of the 100 most cited articles in SDR between 1985 and 2017 are related to the modeling of dynamic problems of wide interest, such as global warming (Naill et al, ; Sterman and Sweeney, ), sustainable development (Harich, ; Moxnes, ), drug use dynamics (Gardiner and Shreckengost, ; Homer, ; Coyle and Alexander, ), conservation policies (Ford and Bull, ), water scarcity (Fernandez and Selma, ) and disasters (Cooke, ; Owens et al, ). The third most cited paper in SDR was written by Forrester () (Cit: 180; ACit: 7.5), and it relates to both of the described streams in SDR: (i) formal procedures and (ii) the modeling and analysis of complex dynamic problems.…”

Modelling and simulation of complex sociotechnical systems: envisioning and analysing work environments

“… Author(s), date Research aim Type of study Simulation technique 1 Rudolph and Repenning ( 2002 ) ‘… develop a general theory of how an organizational system responds to an on-going stream of non-novel interruptions to existing plans and procedures.’ Theory development System dynamics 2 Cooke ( 2003 ) ‘This article describes a system dynamics analysis of the 1992 Westray mine disaster in Nova Scotia, Canada. It examines the causal structure of the Westray system, including relationships that could have led to conditions that caused the fatal explosion at the mine.’ Case study System dynamics 3 Cooke and Rohleder ( 2006 ) ‘… to provide a theoretical basis for incident learning systems and provide motivation for managers to consider their implementation.’ Theory development System dynamics 4 Sharpanskykh and Stroeve ( 2011 ) ‘An agent-based approach proposed in this paper focuses on modeling and analysis of safety culture in particular and addresses an existing gap between safety culture and organizational structures and processes.’ Methodological development Agent-based modelling 5 Owens et al ( 2011 ) ‘The general dynamic structure of procedure rework is described and the results of a study of procedure rework in NASA's Space Shuttle Mission Control are used to highlight implications of the structure's dynamic behavior for the investigation and utilization of these archetypes.’ Theory development System dynamics 6 Feola et al ( 2012 ) ‘… to investigate why PPE [personal protective equipment] underuse is so “rigid” against change in the study area. In so doing, the model is expected to uncover and represent the social processes underlying PPE misuse, and to support the identification of intervention strategies and their evaluation.’ Policy analysis or problem solving Sys...…”

“…Owens, Leveson and Hoffman ( 2011 ) integrated a complex system dynamics production model, designed and successfully applied to assess the economic impact of rework orders on US Navy ship production (Cooper 1980 ) with the system dynamics model developed by Rudolph and Repenning ( 2002 ) described above. Their intent was to understand how these two models could be integrated to assess the impact of rework on the likelihood of disaster occurrence.…”