Problem of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making in Business

Abstract

When making decisions in the field of medium and large business, top management of companies are guided, as a rule, by intuitive considerations. This method is based both on personal experience and the experience of industry colleagues. Intuition can work on non-complex logical tasks, but in the case of complex logistics, the leader is forced to act at his own risk and there is a big chance of an unsuccessful result. Losing is always expensive, given the great competition in the market in almost all areas. In a difficult situation, as a rule, you need a good adviser, a specialist with high professional skills. The proposed method is based on the application of probability theory, a science that studies random events and quantities. This article discusses several practical aspects of the economy and proposes a solution in terms of probability theory.