The celebrated Erdős-Ko-Rado theorem shows that for n ≥ 2k the largest intersecting k-uniform set family on [n] has size n−1 k−1 . It is natural to ask how far from intersecting larger set families must be. Katona, Katona and Katona introduced the notion of most probably intersecting families, which maximise the probability of random subfamilies being intersecting.We study the most probably intersecting problem for k-uniform set families. We provide a rough structural characterisation of the most probably intersecting families and, for families of particular sizes, show that the initial segment of the lexicographic order is optimal.1 Introductionextremal set theory is the Erdős-Ko-Rado theorem, which determines the largest size of an intersecting k-uniform family over [n]. Given this extremal result, one may then investigate the appearance of disjoint pairs in larger families of sets.Recently Katona, Katona and Katona introduced a probabilistic version of this supersaturation problem. Given a set family F, let F p denote the random subfamily obtained by keeping each set independently with probability p. They asked, for a given p, n and m, which set families on [n] with m sets maximise the probability of F p forming an intersecting family. We study this problem for kuniform set families. In the case k = 2, we determine the optimal graphs when they are not too dense. In the hypergraph setting, we provide an approximate structural result, and are able to determine the extremal hypergraphs exactly for some ranges of values of m. These mark the first general results for the probabilistic supersaturation problem for k-uniform set families.We now discuss the history of the supersaturation problem for intersecting families, before introducing the probabilistic version of Katona, Katona and Katona and presenting our new results.