Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control

Abstract

BackgroundDengue viruses have spread rapidly across tropical regions of the world in recent decades. Today, dengue transmission is observed in the Americas, Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, Africa and in non-endemic areas of the USA and Europe. Dengue is responsible for 16% of travel-related febrile illnesses. Although most prevalent in tropical areas, risk maps indicate that subtropical regions are suitable for transmission. Dengue-control programs in these regions should focus on minimizing virus importation, community engagement, improved vector surveillance and control.ResultsWe developed a conceptual model for the probability of local introduction and propagation of dengue, comprising disease vulnerability and receptivity, in a temperate area, considering risk factors and social media indicators. Using a rich data set from a temperate area in the south of Brazil (where there is active surveillance of mosquitoes, viruses and human cases), we used a conceptual model as a framework to build two probabilistic models to estimate the probability of initiation and propagation of local dengue transmission. The final models estimated with good accuracy the probabilities of local transmission and propagation, with three and four weeks in advance, respectively. Vulnerability indicators (number of imported cases and dengue virus circulation in mosquitoes) and a receptivity indicator (vector abundance) could be optimally integrated with tweets and temperature data to estimate probability of early local dengue transmission.ConclusionsWe demonstrated how vulnerability and receptivity indicators can be integrated into probabilistic models to estimate initiation and propagation of dengue transmission. The models successfully estimate disease risk in different scenarios and periods of the year. We propose a decision model with three different risk levels to assist in the planning of prevention and control measures in temperate regions at risk of dengue introduction.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3280-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Imported dengue in Spain: a nationwide analysis with predictive time series analyses

“…On the other hand, the dengue virus periodically enters into non-endemic countries via travellers from endemic countries, especially during the summer holidays, which coincide with the months of the highest vector activity 49 . Finally, we know that environmental and demographic changes can also facilitate the autochthonous transmission of the virus 49 , 55 . For all these reasons, we believe that it is likely that new autochthonous cases will appear in Spain in the near future.…”

A Teoria das Representações Sociais e sua Inter-Relação Entre Sujeito e Objeto

“…A dengue é uma doença de grande importância global para a saúde pública, pois afeta 2,5 milhões de pessoas em países endêmicos (WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, 2009). Recentemente foi observado a presença da doença em regiões não endêmicas dos Estados Unidos e Europa, onde os vírus se espalham através de viajantes infectados, favorecendo, assim o ciclo de transmissão (MARQUES-TOLEDO et al, 2019).…”

A Novel Multiplex RT-PCR Assay for Simultaneous Detection of Dengue and Chikungunya Viruses

“…Humans in tropical and subtropical areas are at a high risk of infection caused by these viruses. There are four medically important disease-causing serotypes of DENV (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) [1,2]. These serotypes can infect individuals of different age groups in tropical and sub-tropical countries [1,2].…”

“…There are four medically important disease-causing serotypes of DENV (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) [1,2]. These serotypes can infect individuals of different age groups in tropical and sub-tropical countries [1,2]. On the other hand, CHIKV has a single serotype and is distributed in Africa, Asia, Australia, and North America [1,2].…”

“…These serotypes can infect individuals of different age groups in tropical and sub-tropical countries [1,2]. On the other hand, CHIKV has a single serotype and is distributed in Africa, Asia, Australia, and North America [1,2]. For the control and prevention of dengue and chikungunya viral fever, it is important to confirm the serotypes of the circulating viruses.…”