Probability of Default Estimation for Construction Firms

Muscettola, Marco

doi:10.5539/ibr.v7n11p153

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(10 reference statements)

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“…Risk is a result or deviation from the realization of the plan that can occur as a result of an ongoing process, future events or unexpected events [21] [22]. Risk can be defined as the chance of an adverse event occurring due to the uncertainty of what will be faced [3]. Risk can be associated with the possibility of an undesirable outcome (loss) [3].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Risk can be defined as the chance of an adverse event occurring due to the uncertainty of what will be faced [3]. Risk can be associated with the possibility of an undesirable outcome (loss) [3]. In other words, the possibility shows the uncertainty that causes the risk [3][21].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Construction projects are projects that are closely related to infrastructure development, including engineering and architecture [1] [2]. The stages in a building project start from the survey process until it can operate according to its designation [3]. Engineering systems are part of the planning of the project involved in the physical construction process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Management in the Development of a Regional Drinking Water Supply System

Kamaludin

Rusdin

Nirmalawati

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Clean water services are a vital need that must be provided to support the dynamics of regional growth. Infrastructure development, such as the provision of drinking water, is considered as one of the policy instruments for economic development, marked by the development of industries, settlements, regional expansion and the increasing need for drinking water. The checklist technique was used by researchers to obtain information from respondents about the application or implementation of risk management. The objective of this research is to identify risk management in the development of the Pasigala Regional Drinking Water Supply System (SPAM), Central Sulawesi Province. This type of research is a case study. This checklist consists of three parts, each of which is used to obtain data on risk identification, risk analysis, and risk treatment. From the analysis, 6 risks fall into the high category, these risks are that the quality of drinking water is not as expected, the Water Treatment Plant (WTP) has never functioned according to the planned capacity, the raw water transmission pipe is not in accordance with the minimum standard / technical specifications, the design raw water production units that have not been able to overcome turbidity due to sedimentation, natural disasters in the location area, and damage to the ecosystem around water sources.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Management in the Development of a Regional Drinking Water Supply System

Kamaludin

Rusdin

Nirmalawati

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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“…Although many recent CB-FPM studies (after 2010) still used the statistical (MDA and LR) techniques [e.g. [29][30][31][32], a few others have adopted machine learning tools [14,e.g. [33][34][35].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for big data analytics approach to failure prediction of construction firms

Alaka

Oyedele

Owolabi

et al. 2018

ACI

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This study explored use of big data analytics (BDA) to analyse data of a large number of construction firms to develop a construction business failure prediction model (CB-FPM). Careful analysis of literature revealed financial ratios as the best form of variable for this problem. Because of MapReduce’s unsuitability for iteration problems involved in developing CB-FPMs, various BDA initiatives for iteration problems were identified. A BDA framework for developing CB-FPM was proposed. It was validated by using 150,000 datacells of 30,000 construction firms, artificial neural network, Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud, Apache Spark and the R software. The BDA CB-FPM was developed in eight seconds while the same process without BDA was aborted after nine hours without success. This shows the issue of not wanting to use large dataset to develop CB-FPM due to tedious duration is resolvable by applying BDA technique. The BDA CB-FPM largely outperformed an ordinary CB-FPM developed with a dataset of 200 construction firms, proving that use of larger sample size with the aid of BDA, leads to better performing CB-FPMs. The high financial and social cost associated with misclassifications (i.e. model error) thus makes adoption of BDA CB-FPMs very important for, among others, financiers, clients and policy makers.

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“…El modelo estadístico desarrollado fue el análisis de regresión logística binaria teniendo en cuenta que la variable dependiente es de naturaleza nominal binaria por las dos posibles respuestas que pudiese tomar (Muscettola, 2014;Sperandei, 2014). El análisis fue aplicado primero seleccionando las variables de acuerdo con la base de datos conformada, así como de la literatura obteniendo la Tabla 1.…”

Section: Modelo Estadísticounclassified

Factores que se correlacionan con la efectividad de la asignación de los recursos para proyectos de construcción para la adaptación y mitigación ante la variabilidad y cambio climático Caso de Colombia : entre los años 2005 y 2017

Ramirez¹,

Pertuz²

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Teniendo en cuenta la complejidad y magnitud de los flujos de recursos económicos que se invierten en proyectos para la adaptación y mitigación de la variabilidad y cambio climático (CCV), es relevante que el proceso de asignación se realice de forma eficiente y clara por lo que se requiere una serie de medidas que permitan asignar, verificar y monitorear los recursos asignados. Por tanto, la presente investigación busca establecer qué factores se correlacionan significativamente con la efectividad de la asignación de recursos económicos en el desarrollo de proyectos de construcción para la adaptación a la variabilidad y cambio climático en Colombia entre los años 2005 al 2017. De acuerdo a la metodología planteada, la investigación se realizó en tres secciones: la primera se centró en la recolección y tratamiento de los datos, la segunda en la determinación de las variables objeto de estudio y la realización de un modelo conceptual con base en la literatura y la tercera parte, en la elaboración del modelo estadístico ajustando las correlaciones entre la variable dependiente y cada una de las variables independientes, con el fin de comprobar las relaciones establecidas en el modelo conceptual realizado. Entre los resultados obtenidos se estableció que el criterio adaptación, tiempo de ejecución, presupuesto asignado y presupuesto ejecutado de los proyectos, son los factores que se correlacionan significativamente en la efectividad de la asignación de recursos para el tipo de proyectos explicado.

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Probability of Default Estimation for Construction Firms

Cited by 10 publications

References 11 publications

Risk Management in the Development of a Regional Drinking Water Supply System

Risk Management in the Development of a Regional Drinking Water Supply System

A framework for big data analytics approach to failure prediction of construction firms

Factores que se correlacionan con la efectividad de la asignación de los recursos para proyectos de construcción para la adaptación y mitigación ante la variabilidad y cambio climático Caso de Colombia : entre los años 2005 y 2017

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