Probability maps of landslide reactivation derived from tree-ring records: Pra Bellon landslide, southern French Alps

Lopez-Saez, Jérôme; Corona, Christophe; Stoffel, Markus; Schoeneich, Philippe; Berger, Frédéric

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.08.034

Cited by 92 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 52 publications

(69 reference statements)

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“…As multi-temporal inventories are time-consuming to prepare, only few works have been published on the temporal probability of occurrence of future landslides (Coe et al, 2000;Guzzetti et al, 2005;Lopez-Saez et al, 2012). The approach presented in this paper allows determination of quantitative probabilities of reactivation estimated directly from the frequency of past events combining recent very slow-moving landslides by SAR results interpretation and landslide (re)activations over the last 60 years by orthophotographs interpretation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering the timing of annual tree ring formation at Bois Noir, landsliding is likely to have occurred in 1874-1875, 1896-1897, 1946-1947, 1992-1993(Lopez-Saez et al, 2011. According to Lopez-Saez et al (2012), the Pra Bellon landslide had no relevant reactivation for the period 1980-1990, while the La Valette landslide has been triggered in 1982 and major failures were observed at Super-Sauze between 1978 and 1982 (Flageollet et al, 1999;Malet, 2003). Figure 13 indicates that many reactivations were recorded at the Bois Noir landslide for the year 2004, but only a few landslides are recorded elsewhere in the region.…”

Section: Discussion: Evolution Of Landslide Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, dendrogeomorphological data provide information on landslide activity at local scale. Data were collected for the Pra Bellon and the Bois Noir landslides (Lopez-Saez et al, 2012 and compared at the regional scale.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Analysis of a landslide multi-date inventory in a complex mountain landscape: the Ubaye valley case study

Schlögel

Malet

Reichenbach

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the paper we analyse a multi-date landslide inventory prepared for a mountainous area affected by several landslide types with different degrees of activity, we attempt to quantify the uncertainties associated to the mapping, we measure the evolution of morphological indicators and estimate landslide activity and temporal occurrence. The inventory, covering the period 1956-2010, is prepared for the middle section of the Ubaye valley (southern French Alps) based on the analysis of multi-source documents (geomorphological maps, historical reports of landslide events, field surveys, orthophotographs and SAR (synthetic aperture radar) satellite images). The uncertainties derived from the expert interpretation of different sources of information, the landslide morphological features and the affected land covers are taken into account in relation to the source documents.Morphological indicators are calculated to describe quantitatively the evolution of the landslides (length, area, relative elevation, runout distance). Frequency-area density functions are computed to estimate the changes in the landslide distributions and a Poisson model is used to estimate the probability of reactivation of the observed landslides and the occurrence of new failures. The proposed multi-date inventory and the associated statistics provide additional information to the event catalogue managed by the local policy makers.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussion: Evolution Of Landslide Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Analysis of a landslide multi-date inventory in a complex mountain landscape: the Ubaye valley case study

Schlögel

Malet

Reichenbach

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…There have been studies using the temporal probability of landslide occurrence to generate hazard maps not only considering spatial probability that means the potential of slope terrain 25 failure (Lopez Saez et al, 2012;Tien Bui et al, 2013;Guzzetti et al, 2005). To present the probability of landslide occurrence, Crovelli (2000) used a Poisson distribution model as below, which is frequently adopted to demonstrate random events in continuous time in natural environments.…”

Section: Probability Model By Poisson Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-based analysis of monitoring time intervals for landslide prevention

Lee

Kil

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract.Landslide is one of the most dangerous disasters in terms of occurrence frequency and damage severity that result in loss of human life and social infrastructure. Monitoring methods based on low temporal resolution instruments such as an inclinometer or piezometer can be an effective and cost-efficient solution. The objective of this research is to analyse monitoring time 15 intervals for low temporal resolution methods based on a risk study and to propose a plan for periodic landslide monitoring along with the different landslide hazard areas by considering the risk reduction effect. For this purpose, an equation for the probability of landslide occurrence was denoted by the concept of reliability, and the monitoring time interval was analysed quantitatively by calculating the average probability of landslide occurrence. To identity the frequency of landslide occurrence, a unit of relative temporal frequencies was adopted, and it was estimated by establishing rainfall threshold. As a case study 20 site, Pyeongchang County was selected, where landslide inventory data are available and an increase in population and infrastructure has been observed since Pyeongchang became the host city of the 2018 winter Olympic games. The result demonstrates that the appropriate monitoring intervals can be determined by calculating the average probability of landslide occurrence, and resources can then be allocated efficiently for landslide prevention.

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“…In this approach, changes in wood anatomy of trees growing on landslide-affected slopes are analyzed and interpreted in terms of external disturbance induced by slope instability (e.g. Shroder, 1980;Lang et al, 1999;Braam et al, 1987;Moya, 1999, 2010;Fantucci and Sorriso-Valvo, 1999;Stefanini, 2004;Migoń et al, 2010;Pánek et al, 2011;Lopez-Saez et al, 2012a and2012b;Wistuba et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Activity of Slow-Moving Landslides Recorded in Eccentric Tree Rings of Norway Spruce Trees (<i>Picea Abies</i> Karst.) — An Example from the Kamienne MTS. (Sudetes MTS., Central Europe)

et al. 2016

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Abstract:We found ubiquitous evidence of ongoing slope instability by analysing the variability of tree-ring eccentricity index in trees growing on three apparently relict landslide slopes in the Sudetes (Poland, Central Europe). Slow movement of these landslide bodies occurs in the present-day conditions and is recorded almost every year, although with variable intensity. Correlation of dendrochronological record with the rainfall record from a nearby station in Mieroszów for the 1977-2007 period is very poor for two deep-seated rotational slides at Mt Suchawa and Mt Turzyna but considerably better for a shallow flowslide at Mt Garbatka. While this may reflect higher permeability of heavily jointed rocks involved in deep-seated sliding this could be linked with imperfections in the rainfall record. Dendrochronology proved capable of detecting minor displacements within landslides which otherwise show no geomorphic evidence of recent activity. Therefore, claims for the entirely relict nature of the landslides are not substantiated.

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Probability maps of landslide reactivation derived from tree-ring records: Pra Bellon landslide, southern French Alps

Cited by 92 publications

References 52 publications

Analysis of a landslide multi-date inventory in a complex mountain landscape: the Ubaye valley case study

Analysis of a landslide multi-date inventory in a complex mountain landscape: the Ubaye valley case study

Risk-based analysis of monitoring time intervals for landslide prevention

Activity of Slow-Moving Landslides Recorded in Eccentric Tree Rings of Norway Spruce Trees (<i>Picea Abies</i> Karst.) — An Example from the Kamienne MTS. (Sudetes MTS., Central Europe)

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