Probability in Social Science

Abstract

This book was set in type by John Knuth on the 1EX system, Stanford, which was created by his father, Donald E. Knuth. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Goldberg. Samuel I. Probability in social science. (Mathematical modelling ; 1) 1. Social sciences--Statistical methods. 2. Social sciences--Mathematical models. 3. Probabilities. I. Title. II. Series: Mathematical modelling (Cambridge. Mass.) 1. HA29.G638 300'.1'5192 82-4470 AACR2 CIP-Kurztitelaufnahme cler Deutschen Bibliothek Goldberg, Samuel; Probability in social science : 7 expository units illustrating the use of probability methods and models. with exercises. and bibliogr. to guide further reading in the social science and math. literatures

Measuring Transition and Mobility in the Hierarchical World–Economy

“…In contrast, the off-diagonal elements delineate change among the class from 1900 to 1980. This realization provides the notion of a composite transition probability matrix of stayers and movers (Goldberg, 1983).…”

Coalitions, Power, and the FOMC

“…To address this, Krislov (1964) and Schubert (1964) showed how to handle coalitions in a very natural way. We base our computations on the exposition provided in Goldberg (1983).…”

“…In our voting game, the incremental value is either zero or one. We get the simpli cation described by Goldberg (1983) as: the Shapley-Shubik power index of a memberof a voting bodyis the numberof voting orders (permutations of all members) in which that memberis the pivot, divided by the total numberof possiblevoting orders.…”

On an Information-Theoretic Model of Explanation

“…The models of statistical explanation associated with such writers as Hempel and Salmon, which are most familiar in the philosophical literature, are models of what Greeno calls "single explanations" of singular explananda. While the details, of course, vary greatly, the intent of such models is to delineate the conditions under which the fact that a particular (kind of) individual, belongs to some class or pos-2For a clear and accessible discussion of some examples of statistical theories in the social sciences having this character, see Goldberg, 1983. sesses certain properties is explained by the provision of appropriate statistical information. Thus, to use Greeno's example, the fact that a certain boy Albert, from an affluent, urban background, is convicted of a major crime, might be explained by the provision of appropriate statistical information about the probability of conviction among boys like Albert (and, in Salmon's case, other statistical information as well).…”