Probability forecast of storm surge levels in the Changjiang Estuary induced by tropical cyclones based on the Error-Estimation Ensemble method

Pan, Yi; Liu, Y.; Chen, Y.P.; Xu, Zhenshan; Xu, Chong‐Yu

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.110524

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…2008; Dietrich et al, 2011). The ADCIRC model has been widely used in the numerical studies on storm surge processes around the world (e.g., Parker et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2020;Shankar and Behera, 2021;Pan et al, 2022b;Wang et al, 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An investigation on the effects of increasing maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones on the return periods of water levels in the sea area of the Yangtze River Delta

Pan

Tan

et al. 2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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This paper investigates the impact of increasing maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones on the return periods of water levels in the sea area of the Yangtze River Delta. To conduct this study, a series of numerical experiments are performed using historical tropical cyclones that impacted the Yangtze River Delta from 1949 to 2019. The aim is to analyze the effects of global climate change on extreme water levels and the corresponding return periods. To obtain the historical water levels in the sea areas of the Yangtze River Delta, a storm surge model is driven by the selected tropical cyclones. The simulated astronomical tidal levels during the same period are also used. The extreme water levels of different return periods are then calculated. The maximum wind speeds of the selected tropical cyclones are increased by 11% according to the expected amount of increase under global climate change. The extreme water levels of different return periods under this scenario are calculated with the same procedure. The results of the study show that the impact of increasing maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones on the increases of extreme water levels and the decrease of return periods is more significant in the inner area of the estuaries than in the outer areas. Moreover, the responses of the extreme water levels and the corresponding return periods in the Yangtze River Estuary and the Hangzhou Bay show different characteristics. The results of this study provide significant reference value for the management of future coastal disaster prevention and mitigation in the Yangtze River Delta. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study can be applied in other estuaries to investigate the potential impacts of changes in climate and hydrology factors on extreme water levels and the corresponding return periods.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An investigation on the effects of increasing maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones on the return periods of water levels in the sea area of the Yangtze River Delta

Pan

Tan

et al. 2023

Front. Mar. Sci.

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show abstract

“…Studies have long studied the storm surge, three-dimensional dynamic process of typhoon storm surge based on the flow model. Furthermore, wave-current interactions under storm conditions can affect the storm surge [5]. For instance, based on MIKE3 and MIKE 21 SW model, a storm-surgewave coupled model was applied to explore the dynamic response to typhoon [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, wave-current interactions under storm conditions can affect the storm surge [5]. For instance, based on MIKE3 and MIKE 21 SW model, a storm-surgewave coupled model was applied to explore the dynamic response to typhoon [5]. For coefficient which could affect the process of the storm surge, some researches that effects of wind drag coefficient, meteorological product and bottom drag coefficient have on the typhoon storm surge in the ECS have been carried out [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Storm Surge on Three-dimensional Tidal Current Characteristics: A Case Study of “Lekima”

Wang

Luo

Zhang

2023

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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This study simulated the process of storm surge in the Eastern China Sea (ECS) during typhoon Lekima, based on the MIKE3 wind-surge model driven by the reconstructed typhoon wind field, which was calculated by the Holland empirical formula. The results show that, affected by shoreline and topography, the storm surge in the Hangzhou Bay and the Taizhou Bay can be more than 3.0 m during typhoon Lekima. During the typhoon, the maximum storm surge on the right side of the track was relatively larger than that on the left side, especially along the coast. And the value of maximum current speed was more than 2.5 m/s, which can be obtained in the coast of Zhejiang. The storm current speed at stations presented logarithmic distribution along the depth generally, either the astronomical tide or storm tide. The vertical structure of current velocity responded to typhoon Lekima presented obvious layered distribution. The value of current speed inner the layers was more than that in the side of the layer.

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Quantification of the nonlinear interaction among the tide, surge and river in Pearl River Estuary

Liu

et al. 2023

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

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Probability forecast of storm surge levels in the Changjiang Estuary induced by tropical cyclones based on the Error-Estimation Ensemble method

Cited by 4 publications

References 37 publications

An investigation on the effects of increasing maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones on the return periods of water levels in the sea area of the Yangtze River Delta

An investigation on the effects of increasing maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones on the return periods of water levels in the sea area of the Yangtze River Delta

The Effect of Storm Surge on Three-dimensional Tidal Current Characteristics: A Case Study of “Lekima”

Quantification of the nonlinear interaction among the tide, surge and river in Pearl River Estuary

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