2020
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8763
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Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm

Abstract: <p>Intense geomagnetic storms can cause severe damage to electrical systems and communications. this work proposes a counting process with Weibull inter-occurrence times in order to estimate the probability of extreme geomagnetic events. It is found that the scale parameter of the inter-occurrence time distribution grows exponentially with the absolute value of the intensity threshold defining the storm, whereas the shape parameter keeps rather constant. The model is able to forecast the probabil… Show more

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