Probability Distribution Characteristics for Surface Air–Sea Turbulent Heat Fluxes over the Global Ocean

Abstract

To analyze the probability density distributions of surface turbulent heat fluxes, the authors apply the twoparametric modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution to the sensible and latent turbulent heat fluxes recomputed from 6-hourly NCEP-NCAR reanalysis state variables for the period from 1948 to 2008. They derived the mean climatology and seasonal cycle of the location and scale parameters of the MFT distribution. Analysis of the parameters of probability distributions identified the areas where similar surface turbulent fluxes are determined by the very different shape of probability density functions.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes associated with prominent ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes trends during 1958–2013

“…Yu et al (2008) pointed out that the THF over the WBCs increased mainly during wintertime, associated with increasing storm frequency (Shaman et al, 2010;Gulev and Belyaev, 2012). In our analysis, we also find that the near-surface wind speed over the WBCs has accelerated, which is likely linked with higher storm activities.…”

“…Iwasaki and Kubota (2011 demonstrated that the LHF and freshwater flux were strengthened over the north-eastern subtropical Pacific during 1988Pacific during -2005 Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, Shaman et al (2010) pointed out that THF have increased over the Gulf Stream during 1948-2008 mainly due to higher storm frequency. The extreme THF events over the subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs), as described by Gulev and Belyaev (2012), have increased significantly during the same period. By analyzing the Goddard Satellitebased Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF), Gao et al (2013) also found an increase in the LHF over the Kuroshio Current andGulf Stream during 1988-2008.…”

High-Latitude Ocean and Sea Ice Surface Fluxes: Challenges for Climate Research

“…Therefore, accurate individual observations or model simulations are needed to reduce the typically dominant sources of error for the smaller-scale processes, whereas dominant errors in larger-scale studies are reduced through low biases and accurate parameterizations. Importantly, some processes do not respond linearly to the forcing; for such processes, it is critically important to properly represent the distribution of fluxes, which are not well known (Monahan 2006(Monahan , 2007Gulev and Belyaev 2012). In current products these distributions differ enormously as demonstrated by the discrepancies in the median as well as in the 5th and 95th percentiles of sensible and latent heat flux (LHF) estimates shown in Fig.…”

Regional Hydrological Cycle over the Red Sea in ERA-Interim

“…This analysis, however, requires much longer time series than those available from the modern reanalyses. Given that the Red Sea is characterized by very good sampling of surface meteorological observations starting from 1900 (Woodruff et al 2011), a challenging possibility is the analysis of interdecadal changes in evaporation, which can be derived using the approach of Gulev and Belyaev (2012), along with the moisture transports revealed by centennial reanalyses (Compo et al 2011;Poli et al 2013). Further analysis of the major driving mechanisms can involve high-resolution regional mesoscale models with a nonhydrostatic setting (e.g., WRF).…”