Probability and predictors of relapse to smoking: Results of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

Abstract

Background The goal of this study was to estimate rates of relapse to smoking in the community and to identify predictors of relapse. Methods Data were drawn from the Waves 1 and 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Logistic regression analyses were used to estimate the probability of relapse at Wave 2 among individuals who were abstinent at Wave 1 given length of abstinence as well as the presence of several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and substance use-related variables at Wave 1. Results The risk for relapse among individuals who had been abstinent for 12 months or less at the baseline assessment was above 50%. Among individuals who had been abstinent for over a year, risk of relapse decreased hyperbolically as a function of time, and stabilized around 10% after 30 years of abstinence. Although several sociodemographic, psychopathologic and tobacco-related variables predicted relapse in univariate analyses, only younger age at cessation and shorter duration of abstinence independently predicted risk of relapse in multivariable analyses. Conclusions The first year after a quit attempt constitutes the period of highest risk for relapse. Although the risk for relapse decreases over time, it never fully disappears. Furthermore, younger age at smoking cessation also increases the risk for relapse. This information may help develop more targeted and effective relapse prevention programs.

The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) Waves 1 and 2: review and summary of findings

“…Comorbidity predicted relapse of cannabis disorders [278] and smoking [188]. Younger age at smoking cessation and shorter abstinence predicted smoking relapse [279]. Incidence.…”

Smoking cessation results in a clinical lung cancer screening program

“…CT lung screening research studies have reported smoking cessation rates of 11% to 24% in the first two years of screening versus a 5% to 7% annual rate in the general population (2,3). Similarly, smoking relapse rates in screening studies range from 10-34% for smokers quit one year or less (4-7), versus a 50-90% annual relapse rate in the general population (8)(9)(10). Smoking cessation and smoking abstinence rates have been reported to continue to improve with increased duration of participation in the screening program (11)(12)(13).…”

Pharmacotherapy: Nicotine Replacement Therapy and Other Drugs in Smoking Cessation (Including Vaccination)

“…The average 12-month success rate reported in most studies is about 15-25% [7][8][9]. Predictors that correlate to a lower success rate are higher nicotine addiction, lower age, no previous quit attempts, previous depression, suffering from COPD and cardiovascular disease, a smoking spouse and low motivation to quit [20].…”