Probabilistic trade-off assessment between competing and vulnerable water users – The case of the Senegal River basin

Tilmant, Amaury; Pina, Jasson; Salman, Maher; Casarotto, Claudia; Ledbi, Fethi; Pék, Éva

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124915

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…For example, on the supply side, there are key uncertainties regarding how changes in climate and land use will affect instream flows, and on the demand side, there are uncertainties about population and economic growth. These supply and demand uncertainties can be incorporated using stochastic analysis and optimization (see, for example, Tilmant et al [2020]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hydro-Economic Methodology for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Valuation and Optimization of Water Resources

Baker¹,

Houtven

Cai

et al. 2021

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Growing global water stress caused by the combined effects of growing populations, increasing economic development, and climate change elevates the importance of managing and allocating water resources in ways that are economically efficient and that account for interdependencies between food production, energy generation, and water networks—often referred to as the “food-energy-water (FEW) nexus.” To support these objectives, this report outlines a replicable hydro-economic methodology for assessing the value of water resources in alternative uses across the FEW nexus–including for agriculture, energy production, and human consumption—and maximizing the benefits of these resources through optimization analysis. The report’s goal is to define the core elements of an integrated systems-based modeling approach that is generalizable, flexible, and geographically portable for a range of FEW nexus applications. The report includes a detailed conceptual framework for assessing the economic value of water across the FEW nexus and a modeling framework that explicitly represents the connections and feedbacks between hydrologic systems (e.g., river and stream networks) and economic systems (e.g., food and energy production). The modeling components are described with examples from existing studies and applications. The report concludes with a discussion of current limitations and potential extensions of the hydro-economic methodology.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hydro-Economic Methodology for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Valuation and Optimization of Water Resources

Baker¹,

Houtven

Cai

et al. 2021

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“…We have selected GR2M (Mouelhi, 2003), a monthly time-step conceptual hydrological model, because (1) it has been used in the SRB with satisfactory results (Ardoin-Bardin, 2004;Ardoin-Bardin et al, 2005;Holding, 2012;Bodian et al, 2015Bodian et al, , 2016, and (2) the simulated flows will be processed by a hydro-economic model of the SRB working on a monthly time step (Tilmant et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Senegal River Basin and Its Sub-basinsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Robust calibration/validation protocol of a hydrological model using hidden Markov states

Guilpart

Espanmanesh

Tilmant

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The impacts of climate and land-use changes make the stationary assumption in hydrology obsolete. Moreover, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the future evolution of the Earth's climate and the extent of the alteration of flow regimes. In that context, it is crucial to assess the performance of a hydrologic model over a wide range of climates and their corresponding hydrologic conditions. We propose a calibration/validation protocol based on the differential split-sample test and numerous, contrasted, climate sequences identified through a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) classification. The proposed protocol is tested on the Senegal River in West Africa. Results show that when the time series of river discharges does not exhibit a clear climate trend, or when it has multiple change points, classical rupture tests are useless and HMM classification is a viable alternative as long as the climate sub-sequences are long enough.

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“…Along with other studies [29,[34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46], the literature still present gaps in the study of tradeoffs in the water-energy-food nexus, especially in representing hydrological uncertainties and variability. Rising [47] have compared integrated assessment models (IAMs) with water-energy-food (WEF) models, showing that IAM provides cost-benefit economic valuation, in opposition to WEF, which takes into consideration hydrological risks while IAMs do not.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water–Food–Energy Nexus Tradeoffs in the São Marcos River Basin

Bof

Marques

Tilmant

et al. 2021

Water

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Given its potentialities and characteristics, energy generation, food production, and water availability have a strong interdependency and correlation. Water is needed to produce energy and food, while energy is required to produce water and food. This nexus brings several challenges when scarce water resources must be allocated among competing uses, often in the form of unexpected tradeoffs. Addressing those challenges requires knowledge about the water–food–energy nexus and the associated tradeoffs to support water allocation and management decisions. Those tradeoffs are still not properly understood in the uncertain and stochastic context of water availability. When not properly accounted for, the results are conflicts, loss of investments, environmental impacts, and limited effectiveness of sectoral policies, all of which undermine a country’s development model relying on water and energy security. This paper addresses the competitive uses of recent irrigated agriculture expansion and existing hydropower production in a Brazilian watershed with water conflicts, assessing the economic tradeoffs and water values between energy and irrigated agricultural production under uncertainty. An explicitly stochastic hydro-economic model is used to determine water’s economic value and its variation in space and time. Results indicate that the agricultural benefits outweigh the potential energy losses, and the best course of action should explore an economically compensated reallocation strategy, upon negotiation among users, rather than imposing water supply cutbacks to the agriculture sector.

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Probabilistic trade-off assessment between competing and vulnerable water users – The case of the Senegal River basin

Cited by 14 publications

References 48 publications

A Hydro-Economic Methodology for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Valuation and Optimization of Water Resources

A Hydro-Economic Methodology for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Valuation and Optimization of Water Resources

A Robust calibration/validation protocol of a hydrological model using hidden Markov states

Water–Food–Energy Nexus Tradeoffs in the São Marcos River Basin

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