Probabilistic seismic slope stability assessment of geostructures

Tsompanakis, Yiannis; Lagaros, Nikos D.; Psarropoulos, Prodromos N.; Georgopoulos, Evaggelos C.

doi:10.1080/15732470802664001

Cited by 49 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…For the analysis of slope stability under seismic conditions, earthquake effects can be included in the limit equilibrium analysis by applying a horizontal acceleration to the weight of the sliding mass and recomputing the factor of safety. Despite its limitations, this simple pseudo-static approach captures wide acceptance (Christian and Urzua 1998;Tsompanakis et al 2012). In this technique, an empirical relationship between the horizontal seismic coefficient K h and the maximal acceleration a max is generally used to obtain the K h before calculating the seismic forces in a pseudo-static analysis, as proposed by Noda et al (1975) …”

Section: Development Of Fragility Functionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…According to Schultz et al (2010), in contrast to nominal failure probabilities estimated from reliability indices, fragility curves provide a richer, more comprehensive perspective on the reliabilities of geostructures, because they are functions rather than points. In the past, significant efforts, based on different strategies and approaches, were invested into attempts to define, evaluate, and quantify the fragility of geostructures (Kennedy et al 1980;Gardoni et al 2002;Dawson and Hall 2006;Jeong and Elnashai 2007;Ebeling et al 2008;Apel et al 2009;Vorogushyn et al 2009;Schultz et al 2010;Tsompanakis et al 2012;Kim and Sitar 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Performance of geostructures can be characterised through fragility functions that describe the conditional probabilities that they are in, or have exceeded, a particular failure state over a range of loading conditions (Kennedy et al 1980;Tsompanakis et al 2012). These functions involve calculating a reliability index via a conventional probabilistic analysis, which can subsequently be interpreted as a relative probability of failure at a particular design point.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…pseudostatic acceleration, less information on the fundamental soil shear strength parameters is incorporated into the models. Tsompanakis et al (2012) developed seismic fragility curves of embankments through incorporating the pseudo-static limit equilibrium analysis into the Monte Carlo simulations. In their studies, only one failure mechanism is examined and the correlation characteristic of shear strengths of fill materials is neglected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis

2014

Landslides

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This paper presents a methodology for constructing fragility functions to characterise slope stability under a range of catastrophic earthquakes and rainfalls. The procedures for creating fragility functions, including the first-order reliability method (FORM) and the copula-based sampling method (CBSM), are demonstrated using a selection of typical slopes. The most common failure modes are included, such as the shallow sliding of an infinite slope, circular slip surface of a homogeneous slope, and tetrahedral wedge failure in a rock slope. Owing to the proposed approach, the fragility function can be applied to quantify the failure probabilities over a range of loading conditions with ease, as these are attributed to a function, rather than a design point. The advantage of these definitions is that the uncertainties of correlated soil shear strengths can be incorporated into the reliability models. The established procedure can provide a basis for describing vulnerable behaviour of a slope under various loading conditions and geometries.

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Section: Development Of Fragility Functionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis

2014

Landslides

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“…PGA was used as the intensity measure and damage states were based on the computed deformation of the slope crest. A similar approach was employed by Lagaros et al (2009) and Tsompanakis et al (2010), who also used PGA as an intensity measure. However unlike most examples of fragility curves, which typically use a physical damage descriptor to define damage states, the authors used target factors of safety from Greek seismic design codes as damage states.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fragility curves for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on transport networks

2018

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Many of the earthworks assets on rail transport networks were constructed in the 1800's and have thus operated for periods far in excess of their expected service life. Incidences of failure, particularly shallow planar landslides are increasing, in part due to the effect of more intense and longer duration rainfall events. Network owners have difficulty in targeting scarce resources to reduce risk across networks. This paper proposes a methodology for developing fragility curves for rainfall induced landslides on transport networks. Fragility curves provide the probability of exceedance of different limit states for a given hazard considering a range of magnitudes. In this paper the vulnerability of slopes as expressed by a loss of performance, is quantified for rainfall events of various intensities and duration. The approach expands upon probabilistic slope stability analysis and provides a rational logical framework for considering how vulnerable a slope is to rainfall induced failure.

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Fragility analysis of slopes exposed to seismic hazard employing surrogate modeling techniques

Cabanzo,

Tinoco,

Sousa

et al. 2023

ce papers

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Natural disasters may lead to failure of critical assets part of railway systems. Slope failure often results in major economic consequences. Due to the economic importance that railways systems have, it is pertinent to ensure good performance and long‐term. The objective of the present research is to propose tools that may allow obtaining the failure probability of soil slopes under a seismic event by employing surrogate models to ease the computational cost of considering the uncertainties associated with geotechnical and geometrical properties of a case study located in Portugal. The presented methodology and derived fragility curves, using peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the intensity measure (IM), can be used to assess slope performance under a seismic event for different safety levels, thus providing useful information for prioritizing assets and taking preventive actions to maintain the desired performance of the railway system.

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Probabilistic seismic slope stability assessment of geostructures

Cited by 49 publications

References 8 publications

Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis

Development of fragility functions for slope instability analysis

Fragility curves for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on transport networks

Fragility analysis of slopes exposed to seismic hazard employing surrogate modeling techniques

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