Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for South Africa

Midzi, V.; Manzunzu, B.; Mulabisana, T.; Zulu, B.S.; Pule, T.; Myendeki, S.

doi:10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2019.103689

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…M w 7.2 events lie at the upper end of normal faulting earthquakes observed during the instrumental period (Neely & Stein, 2021) and the inferred magnitudes lie well above the maximum magnitude recorded in the instrumental record within Namibia (Mw 5.5). The presence of such large events should thus be considered when estimating M max for the purposes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, especially as M max estimated from catalog data tends to be much lower within the region (e.g., Midzi et al., 2020). It seems likely that the relatively large magnitude estimates are connected to the fact that the faults reactivate major strike‐slip shear zones.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exceptional Scarp Preservation in SW Namibia Reveals Geological Controls on Large Magnitude Intraplate Seismicity in Southern Africa

et al. 2023

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Namibia (and SW Africa in general) is considered to be a stable continental region (SCR) with little history of significant earthquakes. Within Namibia, instrumentally recorded earthquakes are restricted to smaller than M w 5.5 (ISC, 2022, Figure 1). Earthquakes recorded in international catalogs reveal a band of seismicity along the west coast within the Namaqua-Natal and Damara belts (Figure 1a, inset). In contrast, the region underlain by the Proto-Kalahari craton appears largely aseismic. Limited network coverage prevents the confident identification of clusters of microseismicity and long-term Global Positioning System (GPS) constraints on strain rates are also

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exceptional Scarp Preservation in SW Namibia Reveals Geological Controls on Large Magnitude Intraplate Seismicity in Southern Africa

et al. 2023

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“…Active Shallow Crust, Stable Continental Crust). The 30 selected hazard models can be used to compute the hazard produced by earthquakes of tectonic origin; the only exception is the South Africa national model which also accounts for seismicity of mining origin (Midzi et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Components Of the Mosaic And Their General Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…South Africa is covered by the model of Midzi et al (2019), which was produced by a collaboration between the Council of Geoscience in South Africa and the Indian Institute of Technology, Jammu. The SSM contains both faults and area sources, and because of the low level of seismicity and limited data, the authors defined the SSC to incorporate alternative Gutenberg-Richter, maximum magnitude, and depth values to account for epistemic uncertainty (discussed more in the section ''A summary of the main characteristics of models in the Mosaic'').…”

Section: Europe and Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SSC logic tree with the largest number of SSMs is the latest national hazard model for Australia (Allen et al, 2020a), which contains 19 different source models. The South Africa model (Midzi et al, 2019) is an example from this model suite that uses an alternative means of capturing source model uncertainty, as in this case the logic tree contains epistemic uncertainties on Gutenberg-Richter parameters and maximum magnitude for each individual source out of the 22 area sources considered. Other models with articulated logic tree structures (e.g.…”

Section: A Summary Of the Main Characteristics Of Models In The Mosaicmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component

et al. 2020

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In December 2018, at the conclusion of its second implementation phase, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation released its first version of a map outlining the spatial distribution of seismic hazard at a global scale. The map is the result of an extensive, joint effort combining the results obtained from a collection of probabilistic seismic hazard models, called the GEM Mosaic. Together, the map and the underlying database of models provide an up-to-date view of the earthquake threat globally. In addition, using the Mosaic, a synopsis of the current state-of-practice in modeling probabilistic seismic hazard at national and regional scales is possible. The process adopted for the compilation of the Mosaic adhered to the maximum extent possible to GEM’s principles of collaboration, inclusiveness, transparency, and reproducibility. For each region, priority was given to seismic hazard models either developed by well-recognized national agencies or by large collaborative projects involving local scientists. The version of the GEM Mosaic presented herein contains 30 probabilistic seismic hazard models, 14 of which represent national or sub-national models; the remainder are regional-scale models. We discuss the general qualities of these models, the underlying framework of the database, and the outlook for the Mosaic’s utility and its future versions.

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