Probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft impact on a spent nuclear fuel dry storage

Almomani, Belal; Lee, Sanghoon; Jang, Dongchan; Kang, Hyun Gook

doi:10.1016/j.nucengdes.2016.11.012

Cited by 12 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Then, the identification of possible accident sequences will be more systematic. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) concept follows this mechanism to enhance the nuclear safety by preventing probable accidents for the event tree pathways, whether from internal or external events [23,25].…”

Section: Nuclear Accident Scenario Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The radiological assessment, hazard evaluation, and spatial distribution for a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident at Baiji potential site

et al. 2020

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Background: The safety assessment in site selection for a new nuclear power plant is an essential issue for human health. It could be improved by predicting the consequences for a hypothetical accident. This paper is contextual with the nuclear safety regarding the risk upon human health from the hazard constituted by the emission of radioactive material due to a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident. HYSPLIT model used and configured based on terrestrial and meteorological conditions for this purpose. Results: It presents an analysis of the time-series and spatial distribution for dispersed radioactive contaminants from a hypothetical accident at Baiji potential site. This is based on the geological and meteorological specifications of the potential site. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model configured to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of fission emissions, then assesses the public health consequences of a hypothetical nuclear accident. Results indicate that the total individual dose intake by the population living around the potential site from the hypothetical accident exceeded 1 Sv, greater than the allowed dose limits by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The probability of cancer incidence at regions on directions of southeast to northeast along 30 km from the potential site was high (0.0378 to 0.00131) risk/person. However, the areas that laid on the west and southwest of the site recorded higher levels of influence compared to regions on other directions. Also, the reduction of exposure dose with the distance from the site presented. The north-direction regions from the Baiji site recorded a rapid reduction of exposure dose to become zero at 40 km distance. Conclusions: Finally, to minimize the radiological impacts on population, emergency procedures are required at the regions that laid on the west and southwest of the site. These countermeasure remedy actions should include evacuation, sheltering, ban the sale of local agriculture productions, and long-range resettlement of the population. Since the plume of radioactive contaminants did not arrive at the regions on east and northeast, 40 km away from Baiji site, these areas could be categorized as a support zone.

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Section: Nuclear Accident Scenario Selectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The radiological assessment, hazard evaluation, and spatial distribution for a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident at Baiji potential site

et al. 2020

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“…The total effective dose equivalent at the three boundaries of interest is calculated by HOTSPOT for each event tree sequence. More details can be found in Almomani et al (2017).…”

Section: Radiological Consequence Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A PSA framework for an Interim Dry Storage Facility Subjected to an Aircraft Crash

Lee,

Amomani,

Jang

et al. 2017

PHMAP_CONF

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An overview of a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility using a probabilistic safety assessment is presented. Damages evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplifiedbuilding structure under aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. Risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures to evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of loading parameters and reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to design basis accidents for best-estimated, conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in the flexibility to evaluate facility capability to withstand aircraft impact and the expectation of potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data, and into the sensitivity of design parameters for structural health management of interim dry storage facility.

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In Search of the Main Wreckage of the Aircraft Crashed in Open Water

Chen

2018

Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Management Science and Engineering Management

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Probabilistic risk assessment of aircraft impact on a spent nuclear fuel dry storage

Cited by 12 publications

References 9 publications

The radiological assessment, hazard evaluation, and spatial distribution for a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident at Baiji potential site

The radiological assessment, hazard evaluation, and spatial distribution for a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident at Baiji potential site

A PSA framework for an Interim Dry Storage Facility Subjected to an Aircraft Crash

In Search of the Main Wreckage of the Aircraft Crashed in Open Water

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