Probabilistic prediction with Bayesian updating for strength degradation of RC bridge beams

Ma, Yafei; Zhang, Jianren; Wang, Lei; Liu, Yongming

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.07.006

Cited by 126 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…However, the old bridges constructed according to the old standards present potential safety risks. Combined with structural component cracking [1], material aging [2], and structural damages in operation, some old beam bridges could not satisfy the load requirements [3]. Moreover, some old bridges with narrow decks could not meet the usage requirement as the volume of traffic increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incremental Loading Balance Method for the Widening and Reinforcement Design of Old Beam Bridges

Wang¹,

Liu²,

Wei³

et al. 2016

JESTR

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To increase utilization of the old beam bridges with narrow deck and inadequate bearing capacity, the incremental loading balance method (ILBM) was proposed based on theoretical analysis and the widening and reinforcement method with longitudinal and transverse beams. Calculation analysis models of old beam bridges before and after reconstruction were established based on the fundamental principle of elastic mechanics and the principle of generalized force equilibrium, respectively. From the comparison of these two models, the method of calculating and optimizing sectional dimensions of new longitudinal and traverse beams was developed. Finally, the reliability and validity of the proposed method were verified using a 20 m-span simply-supported prestressed concrete girder bridge which is located in Yueyang City, Hunan Province of China. Results show that the ILBM could determine the size of new longitudinal and traverse beams. The stiffness of longitudinal beams is determined by the incremental bearing capacity of the entire bridge, whereas that of traverse beams is determined by the incremental bearing capacity of the single beam. The widths of the longitudinal and traverse beams increase with the increase in their stiffness, and the heights decrease with the increase in bending moment of the old bridge. The study can meet the demand of the reconstruction of old bridges.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incremental Loading Balance Method for the Widening and Reinforcement Design of Old Beam Bridges

Wang¹,

Liu²,

Wei³

et al. 2016

JESTR

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show abstract

“…In these existing methods, the presence of the probability distribution of resistance deterioration is essentially necessary for structural reliability analysis when taking into account the uncertainty associated with the time-variant resistance. Practically, the main characteristics of resistance deterioration (e.g., the mean value and/or the standard deviation) can be obtained by either experimental laboratory data (Paik and Kim, 2012;Mohd and Paik, 2013;Ma et al, 2013;Mohd et al, 2014) or in-situ inspection following established standards or manuals (AASHTO, 2008;MOT, 2011;Wang et al, 2015). However, the probabilistic distribution of degraded resistance often remains unaddressed due to the limits of available data (Ellingwood, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of incomplete deterioration information

Wang

Pang

et al. 2016

J. Zhejiang Univ. Sci. A

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The performance of an aging structure is commonly evaluated under the framework of reliability analysis, where the uncertainties associated with the structural resistance and loads should be taken into account. In practical engineering, the probability distribution of resistance deterioration is often inaccessible due to the limits of available data, although the statistical parameters such as mean value and standard deviation can be obtained by fitting or empirical judgments. As a result, an error of structural reliability may be introduced when an arbitrary probabilistic distribution is assumed for the resistance deterioration. With this regard, in this paper, the amount of reliability error posed by different choices of deterioration distribution is investigated, and a novel approach is proposed to evaluate the averaged structural reliability under incomplete deterioration information, which does not rely on the probabilistic weight of the candidate deterioration models. The reliability for an illustrative structure is computed parametrically for varying probabilistic models of deterioration and different resistance conditions, through which the reliability associated with different deterioration models is compared, and the application of the proposed method is illustrated.

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“…The Bayesian approach has been applied to problems related to chloride ingress into RC in some previous studies (De-León-Escobedo, Delgado-Hernández, Martinez-Martinez, Rangel-Ramírez, & Arteaga-Arcos, 2013;Engelund & Sorensen, 1998;Enright & Frangopol, 1999;Keßler, Fischer, Straub, & Gehlen, 2013;Ma, Zhang, Wang, & Liu, 2013;Suo & Stewart, 2009;Wang & Liu, 2010). This approach provides a comprehensive and rational framework to update the estimations based on incorporating new information from inspection data for service-life prediction of deteriorating RC structures (Keßler et al, 2013;Ma et al, 2013;Wang & Liu, 2010) or parameter estimations (Engelund & Sorensen, 1998;Enright & Frangopol, 1999;Suo & Stewart, 2009). The application of Bayesian methods for probabilistic modelling of chloride-induced corrosion is becoming popular and it has also been applied to multiple events in the form of Bayesian Network (BN).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Bayesian network configurations for probabilistic identification of degradation mechanisms: application to chloride ingress

Tran

Bastidas‐Arteaga

Schoefs

2015

Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

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Probabilistic modelling of deterioration processes is an important task to plan and quantify maintenance operations of structures. Relevant material and environmental model parameters could be determined from inspection data; but in practice the number of measures required for uncertainty quantification is conditioned by time-consuming and expensive tests. The main objective of this paper is to propose a method based on Bayesian networks for improving the identification of uncertainties related to material and environmental parameters of deterioration models when there is limited available information. The outputs of the study are inspection configurations (in space and time) that could provide an optimal balance between accuracy and cost. The proposed methodology was applied to the identification of random variables for a chloride ingress model. It was found that there is an optimal discretisation for identifying each model parameter and that the combination of these configurations minimises identification errors. An illustration to the assessment of the probability of corrosion initiation showed that the approach is useful even if inspection data is limited.

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Probabilistic prediction with Bayesian updating for strength degradation of RC bridge beams

Cited by 126 publications

References 32 publications

Incremental Loading Balance Method for the Widening and Reinforcement Design of Old Beam Bridges

Incremental Loading Balance Method for the Widening and Reinforcement Design of Old Beam Bridges

Estimating the time-dependent reliability of aging structures in the presence of incomplete deterioration information

Improved Bayesian network configurations for probabilistic identification of degradation mechanisms: application to chloride ingress

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