Probabilistic modeling of navigation bridge officer's behavior

Abstract

The performance of a navigating officer in critical situations is uncertain and has to be considered in a probabilistic framework, since this may provide an in depth insight in the human -machine interaction. Such a systematic approach will have the objective to understand, to predict and to minimize the role of the human as a causal factor for a casualty in terms of the time sequence needed to perform particular tasks during collision or grounding avoidance activities. By employing the exponential law, it is possible to quantify the cognitive processes of information acquisition, analysis, categorization, decision making and action implementation. Consequently, the minimum required time where an automated system may intervene is determined. In this way, it is expected that it is plausible to prevent the occurrence of a close encounter that could escalate in an accident. Albeit to the lack of an available and appropriate data set, the proposed concept is examined through the small sample results of a published simulation study.

Fuzzy logic system interference in ship accidents

“…Then, at Level 2, the current marine traffic situation is understood by organizing and categorizing the retrieved information, whereas problem statements are constructed (i.e., keep the course, reduce speed, or change track) albeit to conformance with navigation regulations. Consequently, Level 3 involves the selection and implementation of the optimum solution (vessel maneuvering decision) based on understanding the projected future traffic (Psarros, ). Hence, this three‐level simplification can orient itself toward the functional description of a navigation system's automated control behavior as qualified by the navigator's ability to promptly process the accessed information and execute the appropriate voyage plan.…”

“…Hence, this three‐level simplification can orient itself toward the functional description of a navigation system's automated control behavior as qualified by the navigator's ability to promptly process the accessed information and execute the appropriate voyage plan. While a probabilistic model for evaluating the navigator's reaction time was developed in Psarros (), later refined in Psarros (), and the inherent uncertainty was accounted for in Psarros (), the associated cognitive processes for understanding the perceived environment were not considered. Here, it is attempted not only to bridge this gap but also to estimate the influence of supporting the navigator with advanced technology when the human interaction is ineffective.…”