Probabilistic model of Wind Power Ramp Events Based On Moving Ratio Analysis

Abstract

Abstract. Description of probability distribution characteristics of wind power ramp events is always a challenge in grid-connected wind power operation analysis. In this paper, a moving ratio based approach of wind power ramp events is introduced and an probability model is described for the wind ramp events. The proposed model is useful to estimate the relationship between power ramp events and the variability of the wind power. The proposed model is able to satisfactorily approximate the actual distribution of wind power ramp events . It is shown that the linear difference based ramp distribution can be calculated using the proposed moving ratio based approach. The proposed model can be an effective tool in planning for wind power ramp control.

Analysis of Wind Speed Distribution at the Mopah Airport in Merauke

“…A large number of scientific researches have been conducted related to renewable energy which produces various forms of PDF to describe the distribution of wind speeds [3]. Some studies state that wind speed follows the probability distribution pattern of Weibull, Rayleigh, Gamma, Lognormal, Exponential and Gaussian [4], [5]. In this study, wind speed data will be matched with the probability distributions of Gamma, Weibull, Normal, Lognormal and Rayleigh.…”

“…There are several PDFs that can model wind characteristic in a particular place and it is important to choose the right PDF for wind speed [5]. The goodness of fit test is used to select PDF that best represents wind speed characteristic in that location.…”