Probabilistic hazard maps for operational use: the case of SO2 air pollution during the Holuhraun eruption (Bárðarbunga, Iceland) in 2014–2015

Barsotti, Sara

doi:10.1007/s00445-020-01395-3

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…These additional maps were introduced to deal with the expectation of a very detailed and precise forecast, that was actually very hard to obtain. Indeed, the closeness of the target locations to the eruption, the highly temporal variable plume height and the relatively low frequency of SO 2 ux estimates, reduced the capability of providing a reliable quantitative forecast (Barsotti, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Eruption in Fagradalsfjall (2021, Iceland): How The Operational Monitoring and The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Contributed to Its Safe Access

Barsotti

Parks

Pfeffer

et al. 2022

Preprint

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After more than a year of unrest, a small effusive eruption commenced in Fagradalsfjall on 19 March 2021. The eruption lasted six months with multiple fissure openings characterizing the first six weeks. During the eruption lava and low-level gases propagated over the complex terrain: a hyaloclastite massif with mountain peaks up to about 350 m asl with valleys in the between. It is uninhabited, but easily accessible at about 30 km distance from the Reykjavík capital area. While the eruption was on-going, more than 356,000 accesses were counted. Monitoring the onset, the eruption in real-time, forecasting the transport of gas and emplacements of lava flows, and assessing the hazards were instrumental in maintaining safe access to the area. In addition to data accessibility and interpretation, managing this volcanic crisis was possible thanks to a strong collaboration between the scientific institutions and civil protection agencies. The eruption presented an opportunity to tune, test and validate a variety of numerical models for hazard assessment as well as to refine and improve the delivery of information to the public, community members and decision makers. The monitoring team worked long hours during both the pre- and syn-eruptive phases for a safe access to the eruption site and to provide a regular flow of information. This paper reviews the eruption and its associated hazards. It also provides an overview of the monitoring setup, the adopted numerical tools and communication materials made available for informing the general public of possible eruption scenarios and exclusion zones.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Eruption in Fagradalsfjall (2021, Iceland): How The Operational Monitoring and The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Contributed to Its Safe Access

Barsotti

Parks

Pfeffer

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…These low-cost PM and SO 2 sensors perform reasonably well for monitoring volcanic air pollution in communities, as demonstrated during the Kīlauea 2018 eruption (Whitty et al 2020;Crawford et al 2021) and in Iceland (Gíslason et al 2015). Air quality forecast models can complement ambient air monitoring and now play an important role in informing the public about current and predicted levels of volcanic pollution in some locations (Barsotti 2020;Holland et al 2020).…”

Section: Hazard and Exposure Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 91%

Volcanic air pollution and human health: recent advances and future directions

et al. 2021

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Volcanic air pollution from both explosive and effusive activity can affect large populations as far as thousands of kilometers away from the source, for days to decades or even centuries. Here, we summarize key advances and prospects in the assessment of health hazards, effects, risk, and management. Recent advances include standardized ash assessment methods to characterize the multiple physicochemical characteristics that might influence toxicity; the rise of community-based air quality monitoring networks using low-cost gas and particulate sensors; the development of forecasting methods for ground-level concentrations and associated public advisories; the development of risk and impact assessment methods to explore health consequences of future eruptions; and the development of evidence-based, locally specific measures for health protection. However, it remains problematic that the health effects of many major and sometimes long-duration eruptions near large populations have gone completely unmonitored. Similarly, effects of prolonged degassing on exposed populations have received very little attention relative to explosive eruptions. Furthermore, very few studies have longitudinally followed populations chronically exposed to volcanic emissions; thus, knowledge gaps remain about whether chronic exposures can trigger development of potentially fatal diseases. Instigating such studies will be facilitated by continued co-development of standardized protocols, supporting local study teams and procuring equipment, funding, and ethical permissions. Relationship building between visiting researchers and host country academic, observatory, and agency partners is vital and can, in turn, support the effective communication of health impacts of volcanic air pollution to populations, health practitioners, and emergency managers.

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“…In this respect, good practice is to produce dynamically evolving (e.g., timeevolving for short-term purposes) and fit-for-purpose hazard maps (Sandri et al 2012), with appropriate versioning and date stamps. Short-term maps produced during crises evolve in time as monitoring data inform the likelihood of a particular eruption scenario or predicted vent position (Sandri et al 2012;Surono et al 2012;Thompson et al 2017;Barsotti 2020).…”

Section: Hazard and Risk Maps As Communications Productsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, new mitigation actions had to be rapidly planned, and implemented, including a forecasting system for gas concentrations (Barsotti 2020), deployment of a monitoring network of gas sensors, and restricted access to the eruption site.…”

Section: Bárðarbunga Volcano Iceland 2014: An Unanticipated Gas Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for volcano-observatory operations during crises: recommendations from the 2019 volcano observatory best practices meeting

et al. 2022

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In November 2019, the fourth Volcano Observatory Best Practices workshop was held in Mexico City as a series of talks, discussions, and panels. Volcanologists from around the world offered suggestions for ways to optimize volcano-observatory crisis operations. By crisis, we mean unrest that may or may not lead to eruption, the eruption itself, or its aftermath, all of which require analysis and communications by the observatory. During a crisis, the priority of the observatory should be to acquire, process, analyze, and interpret data in a timely manner. A primary goal is to communicate effectively with the authorities in charge of civil protection. Crisis operations should rely upon exhaustive planning in the years prior to any actual unrest or eruptions. Ideally, nearly everything that observatories do during a crisis should be envisioned, prepared, and practiced prior to the actual event. Pre-existing agreements and exercises with academic and government collaborators will minimize confusion about roles and responsibilities. In the situation where planning is unfinished, observatories should prioritize close ties and communications with the land and civil-defense authorities near the most threatening volcanoes.To a large extent, volcanic crises become social crises, and any volcano observatory should have a communication strategy, a lead communicator, regular status updates, and a network of colleagues outside the observatory who can provide similar messaging to a public that desires consistent and authoritative information. Checklists permit tired observatory staff to fulfill their duties without forgetting key communications, data streams, or protocols that need regular fulfilment (Bretton et al. Volcanic Unrest. Advances in Volcanology, 2018; Newhall et al. Bull Volcanol 64:3–20, 2020). Observatory leaders need to manage staff workload to prevent exhaustion and ensure that expertise is available as needed. Event trees and regular group discussions encourage multi-disciplinary thinking, consideration of disparate viewpoints, and documentation of all group decisions and consensus. Though regulations, roles and responsibilities differ around the world, scientists can justify their actions in the wake of an eruption if they document their work, are thoughtful and conscientious in their deliberations, and carry out protocols and procedures developed prior to volcanic unrest. This paper also contains six case studies of volcanic eruptions or observatory actions that illustrate some of the topics discussed herein. Specifically, we discuss Ambae (Vanuatu) in 2017–2018, Kīlauea (USA) in 2018, Etna (Italy) in 2018, Bárðarbunga (Iceland) in 2014, Cotopaxi (Ecuador) in 2015, and global data sharing to prepare for eruptions at Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo). A Spanish-language version of this manuscript is provided as Additional file 1.

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Probabilistic hazard maps for operational use: the case of SO2 air pollution during the Holuhraun eruption (Bárðarbunga, Iceland) in 2014–2015

Cited by 13 publications

References 71 publications

The Eruption in Fagradalsfjall (2021, Iceland): How The Operational Monitoring and The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Contributed to Its Safe Access

The Eruption in Fagradalsfjall (2021, Iceland): How The Operational Monitoring and The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Contributed to Its Safe Access

Volcanic air pollution and human health: recent advances and future directions

Guidelines for volcano-observatory operations during crises: recommendations from the 2019 volcano observatory best practices meeting

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