Probabilistic framework for evaluating food security of households in the aftermath of a disaster

Nozhati, Saeed; Rosenheim, Nathanael; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Mahmoud, Hussam; Pérez, María José Torres

doi:10.1080/15732479.2019.1584824

Cited by 28 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Spatial distribution of food sources and critical infrastructure is key in providing food access, availability, and stability. Disruption in critical components within a network, combined with a place's levels of vulnerability, play a key role in food security after an extreme weather event [42].…”

Section: Farmer Households Island Food Security and Disastermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, risk factors, such as gender or poor physical health, as well as difficult access to social or structural support, were linked to food security levels after Hurricane Katrina in the United States [39]. Impacts to infrastructure and agricultural landscapes also shape the length of negative effects to food security by hindering local production, and household's food access and sources of income [35,42,43]. In the case of SIDS and other net-importers, their susceptibility to market fluctuations and impacts of extreme weather events abroad also have an impact on food security [44,45].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Social-ecological interactions in a disaster context: Puerto Rican farmer households’ food security after Hurricane Maria

Rodríguez-Cruz

Álvarez-Berríos

Niles

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Islands are uniquely vulnerable to extreme weather events and food insecurities, and have additional response challenges due to their limited territories and economies, isolation, colonial legacies, and high dependence of food imports. Domestic farmers have a key role in producing food for island communities like Puerto Rico, which can safeguard food security when food importation may be challenging. Nevertheless, in the context of disaster, farmers themselves may be vulnerable to food insecurity and unable to contribute to domestic markets. This paper examines Puerto Rican farmers households’ food security in the aftermath of 2017’s Hurricane Maria using a social-ecological lens. Survey data from 405 farmers gathered eight months after Maria, coupled with biophysical data from the hurricane’s impacts (winds, rains, and landslides), was analyzed. Overall, 69% of farmers experienced at least one month of food insecurity in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, and 38% reported persistent food insecurity (three months or more). A multinomial logistic regression suggests that biophysical impacts, but especially social factors, such as age and constraint access to external sources of support, are linked with persistent food insecurity. This suggests that the biophysical impacts of the hurricane interact with existing infrastructure and social resources to affect farmer vulnerability and the food environment in different ways. Thus, strengthening adaptive capacity in multiple domains can help farmers and vulnerable populations better navigate the disruptions faced during disasters to alleviate food insecurity.

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Section: Farmer Households Island Food Security and Disastermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social-ecological interactions in a disaster context: Puerto Rican farmer households’ food security after Hurricane Maria

Rodríguez-Cruz

Álvarez-Berríos

Niles

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…2) Seismic Hazard Simulation: In this study, we assume that a seismic event of moment magnitude Mw = 6.9 occurs at the closest points on the SAF projection to downtown Gilroy with an epicentral distance of approximately 12 km [10]; this event is similar to the devastating Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 near Gilroy [14]. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) determine the conditional probability of exceeding the ground motion intensity at specific geographic locations within Gilroy given a fault rupture mechanism and epicentral distance for the earthquake [4]. We use the Abrahamson et al [15] GMPE to estimate the intensity measures (peak ground acceleration) throughout Gilroy.…”

Section: A Problem Setup: the Gilroy Communitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Civil infrastructure systems, including building infrastructure, power, transportation, and water networks, play a major role in the welfare of any community. The interdependence between the recovery of these networks post-hazard and community welfare addressing the issue of food-security, has been studied in [2]- [4]. In this study, we focus on electric power networks (EPNs) because almost all other infrastructure systems rely heavily on the availability of this network.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Automation for Electric Power Network Recovery

Sarkale,

Nozhati,

Chong

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…Modern societies depend heavily on critical infrastructure systems to provide shelter and to distribute essential goods and services to urban inhabitants. These systems are coupled and should be modeled as interdependent systems or networks (Nozhati, Ellingwood, Mahmoud, & van de Lindt, ; Nozhati, Rosenheim, Ellingwood, Mahmoud, & Perez, ; Rinaldi, Peerenboom, & Kelly, ). An interdependent network is more vulnerable to natural hazard events with large geographic footprints in that a failure of key components may lead to the malfunction of several dependent networks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams

2019

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Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate-size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards.

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Probabilistic framework for evaluating food security of households in the aftermath of a disaster

Cited by 28 publications

References 28 publications

Social-ecological interactions in a disaster context: Puerto Rican farmer households’ food security after Hurricane Maria

Social-ecological interactions in a disaster context: Puerto Rican farmer households’ food security after Hurricane Maria

Decision Automation for Electric Power Network Recovery

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams

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