Probabilistic forecasting of sudden power supply interruptions of electromechanical and heat-power equipment of regionally isolated electrotechnical complex

Abstract

There is considered probabilistic forecasting of the most important characteristics of sudden power supply interruptions — damage and downtime of electromechanical and heat-and-power equipment — for process plants typical for installations of a regionally isolated electrotechnical complex. These specifications are considered as random functions of the power supply interruptions duration. A feature of the specifications considered is the presence of finite jumps when the power supply exceeds the critical values. Generalized theoretical equations are obtained for continuous functions of mathematical expectation and variance of process downtime and damage when there is any number of finite jumps of certain implementations and there is consideration of the discontinuity points as random variables with different distribution laws. The obtained specifications are used to optimize the cost of creating power supply systems considering their reliability.