Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-load with Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP
Jethro Browell,
Matteo Fasiolo
Abstract:The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with particular attention given to the tails of predictive distributions, which are required for managing risk associated with lowprobability events. Only small volumes of data are available in the tails, by definition, so estimation of predictive models and forecast evaluation requ… Show more
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